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May 7, 2007

Economics
Central Kansas, not central park

My plans have evolved slightly, so I am going pretty much directly from England to central Kansas (i.e. tornado land).  In practice, that I means I probably won't be able to resume regular postin…

November 4, 2015

China
Assessing the First Park-Abe Summit

For the first time in over three years, leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea converged on Seoul for a trilateral summit. As host, South Korean Park Geun-hye also held bilateral meetings with Chin…

China Japan Korea South Trilateral Park Geun-hye Shinzo Abe Comfort 2

October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

fig 19

October 8, 2019

Taiwan
Could Taiwan’s Commercial Banks Cover the Lifers' Hedging Need? (Part 4)

Who is on the other side of the massive ($250 billion) hedging need of Taiwan's life insurance industry? The local banking system covers at most a quarter of the life insurers hedging need, and forei…

fig 3

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

This is the third post in a series* on Taiwan's life insurers and their private & sovereign FX hedging counterparties. It’s the product of a collaboration with S.T.W**, a market participant and frien…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

Large-scale purchases of foreign bonds have become the central flow sustaining Taiwan’s massive current account surplus and keeping the Taiwan dollar weak. The size of this flow raises the question o…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

October 3, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ Billion Dollar Enigma (Part 1)

Taiwan’s central bank, unlike most central banks, doesn’t disclose its position in FX derivatives. It really should. There is good reason to think its undisclosed exposure is quite substantial.   …

A Taiwan dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017.

November 19, 2019

United States
Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

Stalled export growth is more a function of the strong dollar than of Trump's trade wars. U.S. non-petrol exports haven't grown over the last five years.

Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

November 13, 2019

United States
A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet

Most grandiose explanations for the United States' persistent surplus in the income balance of the U.S. current account miss the mark. The U.S. debt position tracks the sum of past current account de…

A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet