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October 29, 2019

Taiwan
Looking for the Mysterious Hedging Counterparty of Taiwan's Lifers

This gathers the six post series I did with Concentrated Ambiguity into a single easy accessible post.

fig 15

October 17, 2019

Taiwan
What Might Be in Treasury's October 2019 Foreign Exchange Report?

The Fall 2019 Treasury Foreign Exchange Report should send a strong warning to Thailand, Taiwan, and Singapore that their current pattern of intervention in the market would put them at risk of futur…

What Might Be in Treasury's October 2019 Foreign Exchange Report?

November 6, 2019

Election 2020
The President’s Inbox: Should the United States Do Less Overseas?

The latest episode of The President’s Inbox is now live. The Iowa caucuses, the formal start of the presidential nominating process, are just three months away. Given that elections matter for U.S. f…

An American flag flies on the edge of the Atlantic ocean.

September 30, 2019

Puerto Rico
Is Puerto Rico Back on a Path Toward Debt Sustainability?

The plan of adjustment put forward by the oversight board, if approved by enough creditors and the courts, would cut Puerto Rico’s tax supported debt from $50 billion to $25 billion and smooth its re…

Is Puerto Rico Back on a Path Toward Debt Sustainability?

September 20, 2019

Trade
Why Global Trade Imbalances Could Get Worse Before They Get Better…

Transatlantic imbalances reflect Europe's demand deficit, which should be easy to solve (but isn't). Transpacific imbalances haven't disappeared. And are likely harder to solve, as they stem from an …

Banco De Espana Conference on Global Imbalances and Capital Flows in the Era of New Technologies

September 10, 2019

Cybersecurity
Hey LinkedIn, Sean Brown Does Not Work at CFR: Identity, Fake Accounts, and Foreign Intelligence

A fake LinkedIn account of a Sean Brown claiming to work for CFR highlights the issues with fake accounts.

Hey LinkedIn, Sean Brown Does Not Work at CFR: Identity, Fake Accounts, and Foreign Intelligence

October 24, 2019

Japan
A Puzzle in Japan’s Balance of Payments: What Explains Strong Foreign Demand for JGBs?

Japanese investors have an obvious incentive to search for yield abroad. But why has foreign demand for Japanese bonds almost matched Japanese demand for foreign bonds?

A Puzzle in Japan’s Balance of Payments: What Explains Strong Foreign Demand for JGBs?

October 16, 2019

Cybersecurity
New Cyber Brief: Expanding Disclosure Policy to Drive Better Cybersecurity

Threats to national and economic security emanating from cyberspace are all too real, but public disclosure of these incidents is exceedingly rare. A new Council on Foreign Relations Cyber Brief prov…

U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Geoffrey Berman (2nd L) speaks as (L-R) FBI Director Christopher Wray, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers listen during a news conference to announce a China related national security law enforcement action December 20, 2018 at The Justice Department in Washington, DC. The Justice Department has filed charges against two Chinese national individuals, Zhu Hua and Zhang Shilong who bel

September 5, 2019

South Korea
Can Korea Provide a New (Fiscal) Model for North Europe’s Twin Surplus Countries?

Korea looks to be doing a real stimulus. Other "twin surplus" countries should too.

Can Korea Provide a New (Fiscal) Model for North Europe’s Twin Surplus Countries?

October 7, 2019

NAFTA
Democrats Are Right to Insist on Better Enforcement Provisions in the USMCA

Are the provisions of the Trump administration’s rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)—set forth in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enforceable? As written, the…

USMCA Signing