1,125 Results for:

September 20, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Who is in more financial trouble: social security or the rest of the government?

There is a common sense that social security is bankrupt and people now in their 20s and 30s won’t get anything from it. That is false. Social security can fund all projected benefits until someti…

October 25, 2004

DeLong on the global economy

DeLong’s powerpoint notes are certainly worth checking out. The side by side graphs showing real GDP growth and then employment growth (or the lack thereof) elegantly tell the story of the 2002-2004…

November 29, 2004

Financial Markets
Where is China keeping its reserves …

It is not too hard to figure out what Japan is doing with its reserves. From the beginning of 2003 to September 2004, Japan’s official reserves increased by $360 billion. Over that time frame, Japan…

December 18, 2004

2004 and 2005 current account deficits

Now that we have three of the four data points for 2004, it is worth trying to make a (well) informed guess about the end of the year current account deficit -- and to peer into 2005. This post of c…

October 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
The next president can duck Social Security reform

Schlesinger and Murray have a pre-debate overview of economic issues in today’s Wall Street Journal. All in all, it is not bad.But I do object to their characterization of Social Security. They not…

January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

December 18, 2004

The world’s two most distorted prices …

My nominations.The renminbi-dollar at 8.28 renminbi per dollar -- a price that puts China’s per capita income at around, only a bit above Iraq’s per capita income. The ten year US government treasury…

January 26, 2005

Financial Markets
China reads the Economist. Is the Renminbi undervalued?

While China’s delegation to Davos seems a bit less than enamored with the dollar, the People’s Bank of China seems have read last week’s Economist, and concluded that there is no need to change the …

January 12, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
So does the President think the US is bankrupt right now?

By the President’s definition, Social Security is bust because it can only pay about 80% of promised benefits with dedicated revenues in 2053, after the trust fund is exhausted in 2052, and only 75% …

November 19, 2004

Greenspan, part II

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan was careful to frame the risk created by rising US external debt for foreigners investing in the US (and in the process financing the US current account …