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July 8, 2020

China
Slouching Toward Phase One

On current trends, goods exports to China will struggle to reach their 2017 level—there won't be any big gains from the Phase One deal.

US Goods Exports to China Cumulative Comp and projections for 2020

October 7, 2020

Economics
Tracking Currency Manipulation

Currency manipulation is one way countries can shift patterns of trade in their favor. By buying foreign currency in the market, a country can artificially change the price of its imports and its exp…

February 8, 2021

Economics
Farewell

I am stepping down from my position at the Council of Foreign Relations to take a new job. That, among other things, means that I will not be blogging here for the foreseeable future. I am enormou…

February 18, 2021

Currency Reserves
The Dollar Privilege

The dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency, accounting for $6.7 trillion in foreign reserves. This has given the United States what some have called “an exorbitant privilege,” allowing it to …

Podcast A one dollar bill

June 17, 2019

International Economic Policy
Three Recommended Changes to U.S. Currency Policy

I have a new Policy Innovation Memo that recommends three changes to U.S. currency policy, and specifically, three changes to the U.S. Treasury’s Foreign Exchange report: 1. The Foreign Currency r…

Passers-by are reflected on a signboard displaying currency signs outside a bank in Tokyo November 27, 2014. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

March 13, 2018

Energy and Climate Policy
Why Fuel Economy Standards Matter to U.S. Energy Dominance

During last week’s international energy industry gathering in Houston, CERA Week, U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry introduced a new buzzword for the Trump administration’s energy policy: “energy r…

U.S. President Donald Trump talks with Energy Secretary Rick Perry after delivering remarks during an "Unleashing American Energy" event at the Department of Energy in Washington, U.S., June 29, 2017.

March 5, 2015

United States
The Twenty Best Vietnam Protest Songs

Sunday marks fifty years since the first U.S. combat troops arrived in South Vietnam. To mark the anniversary of the war that changed America, I am doing a series of posts on the best histories, memo…

Vietnam-War-Songs

August 16, 2017

Radicalization and Extremism
The U.S. Far Right’s Message of Hate Will Not Prevail Outside Its Internet Echo Chamber

The U.S. far right has learned from the self-declared Islamic State to spread its message of hate online. Fortunately, the neo-Nazi message is less likely to spread offline in the United States.

Charlottesville

February 14, 2011

Egypt
Egyptian Military’s Moment of Truth

Egyptian soldiers chat as they stand on their tank before moving to another location at Tahrir Square in Cairo on February 12, 2011 (Dylan Martinez/Courtesy Reuters) Hi everyone, Here is my "firs…

Egyptian soldiers chat as they stand on their tank before moving to another location at Tahrir Square in Cairo on February 12, 2011 (Dylan Martinez/Courtesy Reuters)

January 8, 2016

China
The Year China Solidifies the Renminbi’s Place in Africa

This is a guest post by John Causey, a private equity and transaction advisor with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. The U.S. dollar’s dominance in sub-Saharan Africa is no longer certain. Despite the …

Renmembi Africa