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February 22, 2018

Puerto Rico
Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Positive Growth Shock for Puerto Rico? Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Positive Growth Shock for Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico’s latest fiscal plan appears to use a best case scenario as its base case. It consequently doesn’t provide a realistic benchmark for evaluating Puerto Rico’s long-run capacity to pay.

October 2, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico Before Maria Puerto Rico Before Maria

My new discussion paper with Greg Makoff on economic and demographic trends in Puerto Rico.

September 27, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rican and U.S. Flags Puerto Rico After Maria: Initial Thoughts on the Fiscal and Economic Implications

Puerto Rico faced immense challenges even before the devastation from Hurricane Maria. Its economy is 15 percent smaller now than it was ten years ago, and the latest high frequency indicators from t…

October 10, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico Update: PROMESA, Population Trends, Risks to the Fiscal and Economic Plan—and Now Maria

A new report from the Center for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), co-authored by Brad W. Setser and Gregory Makoff.

March 12, 2018

Two men overlook Port-au-Prince in the wake of the 7.0-magnitude earthquake of 2010. Haiti’s Troubled Path to Development

Hobbled by foreign interventions, political instability, and natural disasters, the former French colony has long suffered from underdevelopment.

February 27, 2018

People cross over the Simon Bolivar international bridge to Colombia from San Antonio del Tachira. Venezuela's Neighbors Can't Wait for Uncle Sam

Venezuela’s refugee crisis is metastasizing. According to the United Nations, 5,000 Venezuelans have fled to Curacao, 20,000 to Aruba, 30,000 to Brazil, 40,000 to Trinidad and Tobago, and more than 6…

October 30, 2012

Corporate Governance
Emergency personnel help a resident onto a boat after rescuing her from flood waters brought on by Hurricane Sandy in Little Ferry, New Jersey on October 30, 2012 (Adam Hunger/Courtesy Reuters). Hurricane Sandy: A Lesson in Why Governments Really Matter

Grover Norquist, the anti-tax crusader, has famously said that he has no wish to eliminate government, but only to “shrink it to the size where we can drown it in a bathtub.” Americans up and down th…

January 24, 2018

United States
A Salvadoran immigrant waits for an elevator at the New York Immigration Coalition following President Trump's announcement to end TPS for Salvadorans. What Is Temporary Protected Status (TPS)?

The Trump administration has taken away legal status for hundreds of thousands of migrants, most of whom have lived in the United States for more than fifteen years.

January 23, 2018

The corporate logo of the state oil company PDVSA is seen at a gas station in Caracas, Venezuela December 1, 2017. How Much Worse Can it Get for Venezuela’s State Oil Firm PDVSA?

Venezuela’s latest attempt to raise capital by issuing a cryptocurrency, the petro, linked allegedly to its Orinoco oil reserves is problematical on so many levels, it is hard to know how to comment …