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January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

April 4, 2006

China
The Euro moved as much in one day last week (Thursday) as the RMB has moved since July

But the European Union still thinks it needs to warn against the risk that China will let the RMB appreciate too rapidly.Memo to the EU.   Where have you all been?   China considered a bigger initial…

August 9, 2007

China
The balance of financial terror, circa August 9, 2007

Back in early 2004, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers highlighted the emergence of what he termed the "balance of financial terror."   China – and others – relied on the US for demand that t…

September 29, 2007

China
Waiting for the Plenum

Michael PettisIt is hard to overestimate the importance to China's near-term and longer-term prospects of the 17th Plenum in two weeks.  These meetings, held every five years, are the main events…

October 14, 2007

China
Why did China only add $100b to its fx reserves in the third quarter?

Chinese reserve growth, on the surface, seems to be slowing.   The q3 headline increase was “only” $101b – down from $135b in q1 and $130b in q2.   The actual slowdown is even more dramatic.    If Ch…

December 10, 2007

China
The search for China’s missing foreign assets …

Yesterday I noted the remarkable slowdown in China’s reserve growth over the last few months.     Chinese reserve growth over the last three months – after adjusting for estimated valuation gains -- …

chinese_bank_fx_growth_12m_dec_07

November 13, 2007

China
China’s CPI numbers look bad

Michael PettisFinally the November CPI numbers for China are in.  I said I would try to write about other things besides China, but here I am, my third post on Brad's blog, and still nothing but …

December 2, 2007

China
China: selling Treasuries and buying yen? What do we know about how China manages its foreign assets?

Put the latest from Stratfor and Yves Smith (Naked Capitalism) together, and it seems like China may be scaling back on its holdings of US treasuries in order to buy yen.  Stratfor hints that China m…

chinese_holdings

January 13, 2008

China
Are China’s foreign assets growing by $430b a year? $500b a year? Even more rapidly?

It is almost impossible to overstate the scale of China’s reserve growth. China just announced that its reserves increased by $461.9b in 2007. Its reserves "only" increased by $247.5b in 2006. …

china_reserves_thru_07.jpg

February 20, 2008

China
The debate over the pace of hot money flows into China

Are hot money inflows to China falling? Or rising? Are hot money flows a constraint on the PBoC’s ability to raise domestic Chinese interest rates to try to curb inflation, or not? And, more broad…

china_hot_money_1.jpg