Transition 2021

Following Joe Biden’s election as the forty-sixth president of the United States, many people in Taiwan feared that U.S.-Taiwan relations would suffer. According to one poll conducted prior to the presidential election, Taiwan was the only place in Asia surveyed where the population favored President Trump’s reelection. The Trump administration had bolstered U.S. ties with Taipei, dispatching high-level envoys to the island, selling over $18 billion in arms to Taiwan (compared with $14 billion during the eight years of the Obama administration), removing all restrictions on contacts with Taiwan officials, working to shore up Taiwan’s relationships with its remaining diplomatic allies, and explicitly including Taiwan as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. A significant share of the Taiwan public was apprehensive that the Biden administration would be a continuation of the Obama administration, which they believed had prioritized Chinese cooperation on global issues such as climate change over building stronger ties with Taiwan. So far, however, these fears appear to be misplaced. The Biden administration has signaled that it will largely pick up where the Trump administration left off. Those who now serve in senior roles in the Biden administration signaled their support for Taiwan prior to joining the administration. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, and Kurt Campbell, the NSC coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, called for the United States to invest in capabilities that would bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait and for the United States and China to maintain their “tacit commitment not to unilaterally alter the status quo.” Both Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin underscored their support for Taiwan during their confirmation hearings. Blinken stated the U.S. commitment to providing Taiwan with the capabilities it needs to defend itself “will absolutely endure in a Biden administration,” noted he “would also like to see Taiwan playing a greater role around the world,” and alluded to reexamining U.S. regulations for interacting with Taiwan with an eye toward liberalizing them. He concluded, “the commitment to Taiwan is something that we hold to very strongly.” Austin emphasized U.S. “support to Taiwan has been rock solid over the years” and he would “make sure that we’re living up to our commitments to support Taiwan's ability to defend itself.” The Biden administration sent an important signal of its support for Taiwan when it chose to invite Taiwan’s representative in the United States, Bi-khim Hsiao, to President Biden’s inauguration. This marked the first time since the United States severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 that Taipei’s representative in the United States was formally invited to a presidential inauguration. The strongest indication that U.S.-Taiwan ties will continue to be strengthened came in official statements that were issued after China flew fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone just days after Biden took office. The People’s Liberation Army sees operational value in conducting these missions, and it could have also been motivated by a desire to test the Biden administration’s response. The spokeswoman for the National Security Council responded by underlining the U.S. commitment to Taiwan is “rock-solid.” The State Department issued its own statement that is worth quoting in full: The United States notes with concern the pattern of ongoing PRC attempts to intimidate its neighbors, including Taiwan. We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives. We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values in the Indo-Pacific region—and that includes deepening our ties with democratic Taiwan. The United States will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues, consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people on Taiwan. The United States maintains its longstanding commitments as outlined in the Three Communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances. We will continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability. Our commitment to Taiwan is rock-solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region. The statement clearly puts the onus on Beijing for raising tensions, elevates the Six Assurances to holding the same weight as the three joint communiqués, affirms a U.S. intention to deepen ties with Taiwan, and again notes a “rock-solid” commitment to Taiwan. The Biden administration passed its first test with flying colors. Taken together, these signals indicate that the Biden administration is likely to continue to forge a closer relationship with Taiwan. This reflects a growing sense among U.S. policymakers that as Chinese foreign policy grows more assertive and military deterrence in the Taiwan Strait continues to erode, China could be tempted to try to coerce Taiwan. As a result, the United States has to more clearly signal to China its commitment to Taiwan and work with Taiwan to bolster deterrence. It also reflects a growing consensus in the U.S. policymaking community that Taiwan is a reliable partner for the United States on a host of issues. It is possible that the Biden administration will choose to strengthen this relationship out of the public eye, as the media attention makes a Chinese response more likely, and Taiwan often bears the brunt of that response. Thus, the next four years may see fewer high-level visits to Taipei, but one should expect that senior U.S. officials will continue to meet with their Taiwanese counterparts in private in an effort to build this partnership. Nonetheless, the Biden administration has sent strong signals during its first week in office that it will continue to nurture U.S.-Taiwan relations. The next four years are likely to have more continuity than discontinuity.

North Korea will likely continue to develop its nuclear program, but Kim Jong-un could return to negotiations if the United States makes concessions.

Biden’s electoral victory and the course correction he has already begun are poised to repair America’s reputation abroad and reinstate transatlantic solidarity. Nonetheless, neither side of the Atlantic can afford to be complacent about the challenges that lie ahead.

Biden has moved to rejoin the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization. They likely won’t be the last international agreements and institutions that the United States reenters.

Joe Biden gave the nation a much-needed civics lesson today in the guise of an inaugural address. His message was impossible to miss—America’s strength lies in American unity. It is a simple, almost banal, truth. It’s also one we risk losing sight of, and with it, most everything we cherish. It attests to the parlous state of American politics that Biden felt compelled to open his address by reminding us “that democracy is precious. Democracy is fragile. And … democracy has prevailed.” Just two weeks ago a mob attacked Capitol Hill seeking to overturn the results of a free-and-fair election. They were egged on by a president who refused to concede that he had lost and who actively promoted baseless charges of widespread election fraud. “The will of the people has been heeded,” as Biden put it, but only after considerable political damage was done. Biden wisely chose not to try to match the poetic elegance of Lincoln’s two magisterial inaugural addresses or the inspirational vision of John F. Kennedy’s in his twenty-one minute speech. Instead, he spoke conversationally, talking like a man who has seen a lot—and learned a lot—during his half century in the upper reaches of American political life. He cautioned us about what we too often forget as we vent on Facebook and Twitter: “Without unity there is no peace, only bitterness and fury. No progress, only exhausting outrage. No nation, only a state of chaos.” Facing an inauguration audience thinned by coronavirus concerns and an unprecedented security lockdown, Biden openly acknowledged that the nation is set against itself. He admitted that his talk about “unity can sound to some like a foolish fantasy these days. I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real.” No doubt in the back of his mind was the daunting political reality that his predecessor boycotted his inauguration and that three-quarters of Republicans believe he was not legitimately elected. It is hard to lead when people deny your right to do so.     Nor did Biden sugarcoat the challenges country faces: We face an attack on our democracy and on truth. A raging virus.  Growing inequity. The sting of systemic racism. A climate in crisis. America’s role in the world. Any one of these would be enough to challenge us in profound ways, but the fact is we face them all at once, presenting this nation with one of the gravest responsibilities we’ve had. Now we’re going to be tested. Are we going to step up, all of us?  It’s time for boldness, for there’s so much to do.   He wisely left it there, resisting the temptation to begin listing draft bills, policy initiatives, and executive orders that his administration will pursue. He knows he has ample time in the future to talk specifics about his plans for addressing the issues the country faces at home and abroad. Biden instead stuck to his theme: that our greatest challenge is to recover the magic of our democracy. He stressed the centrality of truth to the health of any democracy, warning that “there are lies, lies told for power and for profit.”  No speech, of course, no matter how well written or deftly delivered, can heal a nation. But a speech can mark a start. And that’s what Biden tried to do in calling on Americans to look to what unifies them rather than fixate on what divides them. In the weeks and months to come Americans will argue about whether Biden is living up to his vow to champion unity. But the cure to our current democratic distress doesn’t lie in the actions of one president or one administration. Rather it lies in what we as a people do. In an implicit invocation of Kennedy’s famous line asking “what you can do for your country,” Biden called on all Americans to “begin to listen to one another again. Hear one another, see one another, show respect to one another. Politics doesn’t have to be a raging fire destroying everything in its path.” That is the fundamental civics lesson that Biden delivered. Only time will tell whether we as citizens are ready to heed that wisdom and to seek an end to what the forty-sixth president rightly called our “uncivil war.” Anna Shortridge assisted in the preparation of this post. 

In two days, Joe Biden gets to do what only thirty-nine other Americans have ever done: deliver a presidential inaugural address. It is a tough task to do well under any circumstance. It’s even tougher when it comes against the backdrop of a pandemic that has killed 400,000 Americans and two weeks after a mob ransacked the U.S. Capitol. It’s appropriate then that the theme of Biden’s inauguration is “America United.” Unity over division was the core message of his campaign from the start. In the words of the Presidential Inaugural Committee, Biden hopes his inauguration will spark “the beginning of a new national journey that restores the soul of America, brings the country together, and creates a path to a brighter future.” That is a tall order. You don’t need to read the polls to know that Americans are deeply split. No single speech, however well written or delivered, can sweep away those differences—or the legacies they have created. But words matter. They can set a tone. They can make us think. They can give us hope. As Biden and his speechwriters fashion his remarks, they would do well to seek inspiration from what past presidents have said as they came to office in critical times. On that score, seven inaugural addresses stand out for their eloquence, their wisdom, and their vision. Perhaps Biden’s speech could join this list. 1. Thomas Jefferson (1801). Jefferson took office as the nation’s first political parties were taking shape. His election marked the first time that the presidency passed from one party to another. The man he defeated, John Adams, was so bitter over the election results that he skipped the inauguration. But Jefferson understood the moment. He reminded his fellow citizens that more united than divided them: But every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all Republicans, we are all Federalists. 2. Abraham Lincoln (1861). As the United States stood on the brink of Civil War, Lincoln held out hope for his nation. He urged North and South to settle their differences within the Union rather than break it apart. His call went unheeded, but not for a lack of eloquence. I am loath to close. We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature. 3. Abraham Lincoln (1865). Lincoln had good reason to be bitter as he took the oath of office for the second time. Thousands of his countrymen had died on the battlefield, and many thousands more had seen their lives uprooted. Many of his supporters wanted him to be unsparing in his treatment of the soon-to-be-defeated Confederacy. Rather than speaking of punishment and revenge, however, Lincoln delivered a speech of incredible generosity and wisdom. With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations. 4. Theodore Roosevelt (1905). TR took the oath of office just as the United States was coming into its own as a global power. He encouraged his fellow citizens to recognize their good fortune, and he called on them to undertake the hard work necessary to keep the United States a great power. In all, it was the inaugural address one would expect from a man who wouldn’t let a bullet stop him from giving a speech. Never before have men tried so vast and formidable an experiment as that of administering the affairs of a continent under the forms of a Democratic republic….Upon the success of our experiment much depends, not only as regards our own welfare, but as regards the welfare of mankind. 5. Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1933). FDR took office during the depth of the Great Depression. Facing a country gripped with uncertainty and self-doubt, he knew he needed to restore not just the public’s confidence in the economy but also in themselves. He succeeded. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself–nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. 6. John F. Kennedy (1961). As the 1960s dawned, Americans worried that their epic victory in World War II was being eclipsed by the inexorable march of global communism. JFK responded to these fears with a sweeping pledge that America would bear any burden in the defense of liberty. He added in an unforgettable call for Americans to support their country. And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you–ask what you can do for your country. 7. Ronald Reagan (1981). The 1970s were a tough decade for the United States. It lost in Vietnam. The economy sagged. Interest rates, unemployment, and deficits all soared. Reagan promised to get America’s mojo back by dismantling big government. His inaugural address ushered in what in retrospect was a new, conservative era in American politics. The economic ills we suffer have come upon us over several decades. They will not go away in days, weeks, or months, but they will go away. They will go away because we, as Americans, have the capacity now, as we’ve had in the past, to do whatever needs to be done to preserve this last and greatest bastion of freedom. In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem. No list of the best inaugural addresses ever would be complete without mentioning which president delivered the worst one ever. You might think that the winner in this category would be William Henry Harrison. He took nearly two hours to deliver an 8,000-word speech outdoors, without a hat or coat, on a bitterly cold and snowy day. Pity the poor crowd that had to listen to that. (Or tried to listen to it. This was eighty years before loudspeakers were used for the first time.) But no, that performance only earns William Henry Harrison third place. The two worst inaugural speeches ever given were by James Buchanan and Donald Trump. Buchanan used his 1,857-word speech to complain that the country was so consumed in debating slavery that it was ignoring other, more important issues. Trump’s 1,433-word speech railed against “American carnage” and painted such a dystopian picture of the United States that a former president in the audience remarked, “That was some weird sh*t.” Perhaps the quality of an inaugural address says something about the quality of the presidency to follow. Buchanan tops virtually every list of the worst presidents in American history. Trump is likely to join him there. Anna Shortridge assisted in the preparation of this post.

Each Friday, I look at what is happening in President-Elect Joe Biden’s transition to the White House. This week: Biden faces substantial obstacles in his bid to remake U.S. foreign policy after four years of America First.