Council of Councils
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An early-morning U.S. operation in Venezuela on January 3 led to the capture of the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Two days later, Maduro appeared before a U.S. federal court in New York City, where he pleaded not guilty to drug, weapons, and narco-terrorism charges.
He now faces a possible life sentence while his country contends with an uncertain future. In the meantime, Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has been sworn in as interim president. Most Venezuelans have celebrated Maduro’s removal, but onlookers worldwide have had mixed reactions about the U.S. operation that led to his capture. The prospect for regime change, however, is bleak, experts said.
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Maduro’s ouster raises big questions about U.S. intentions in Venezuela and what it could mean for other territories that Washington has threatened to overtake, the country’s leadership, the future of its oil sector, the welfare of Venezuelans, and further tremors for the region. CFR lays out the essentials in this major Trump escalation.
What are the details of Operation Absolute Resolve that captured Maduro?
Operation Absolute Resolve, which focused on the capture of Maduro, was part of the ongoing U.S. military campaign in the Caribbean called Operation Southern Spear. The Trump administration said initially that this larger campaign was launched to curb drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere, but Maduro’s capture has intensified scrutiny about its true aims.
After Trump approved intervention in Venezuela, U.S. forces used 150 aircraft to carry out large-scale strikes on multiple targets in the country’s capital, Caracas, on January 3. The U.S. Army’s Delta Force and CIA operatives captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flew them initially to the USS Iwo Jima assault ship stationed nearby. The pair were then brought to New York, where officials indicted them for leading a “corrupt, illegitimate government” centered on a major drug-trafficking network that allegedly poured thousands of tons of cocaine into the United States.
The Trump administration said that it had been surveilling Maduro as tensions between Washington and Caracas escalated in recent months. What comes next for Venezuela is unclear, but experts aren’t confident it will bring about real change.
“[Trump] spoke about the United States running Venezuela during a transition period—a recipe for an Iraq-style disaster—and seemed to suggest that Washington might work with Maduro’s hand-picked vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who was deeply implicated in his oppression and corruption,” CFR Senior Fellow Max Boot said.
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What charges does Maduro face?
A twenty-five-page indictment [PDF] released on January 4—the day before Maduro’s trial began—alleged that the Venezuelan leader worked with drug cartels to transport thousands of tons of cocaine into the United States.
If convicted, Maduro could face life in prison. He and his wife pleaded not guilty in court on January 5, and the pair repeatedly asserted their roles as president and first lady, and claimed they were prisoners of war. Maduro’s lawyer, meanwhile, raised “questions about the legality of his military abduction.” That same day, several countries, including U.S. allies, condemned the operation at a UN Security Council meeting.
CFR Senior Fellow Matthew C. Waxman, an expert in national security law, indicated that Washington does not have international law on its side. “The UN Charter prohibits force against another state except with Security Council backing or in self-defense,” he told CFR. “No doubt, the Maduro regime was deplorable and its activities harmed American interests, but the administration has not made a self-defense case that satisfies international standards.”
The couple’s next court appearance is slated for March 17. Whether or not Maduro’s extraction is considered legal, Waxman said, “once he’s in U.S. custody, the international legality of his apprehension doesn’t matter much in prosecuting him. Maduro will continue to raise this issue, but I doubt he’ll get anywhere on it.”
What’s the outlook for regime change in Venezuela?
Maduro ran a dictatorship after taking office in 2013, cementing his rule through political repression, censorship, and manipulation of elections to remain in power. In 2024, Edmundo González Urrutia won the country’s presidential election, but the Maduro regime barred him from taking office. Despite Maduro’s claim of victory, many countries, including the United States, declined to recognize Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate leader.
That regime still appears to have a stronghold on the country even after Maduro’s deposition. His vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has been sworn into office in his place, but there is no clear plan to hold new elections despite the country’s mandate requiring one to occur within thirty days of such an event. Rodríguez has played a direct role in Maduro’s authoritarian regime and has faced U.S. sanctions. She initially expressed strong condemnation for Trump’s actions but later walked it back, stating she would work with the United States.
Several U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is overseeing U.S. efforts in Venezuela, have said that the United States wants the country to transition to a democracy. Rubio announced that in the short term, efforts are focused on stabilizing the country, including by stamping out drug trafficking and preventing Venezuela’s oil industry from benefiting U.S. adversaries.
Without any emphasis on a transition, experts do not see democracy coming to fruition on its own. “What Trump wants is for the regime to accede to his demands, especially regarding oil. The regime will—sadly—still run the country,” said Elliott Abrams, CFR senior fellow and former U.S. special representative to Venezuela during the first Trump administration. What’s more, “if the United States deals not with the democratic parties but instead with regime remnants, disaster would be ensured.”
While opposition leaders, such as María Corina Machado, supported the operation and maintain broad public support, the Trump administration said they would struggle to take control of power from Maduro loyalists in the military. A reality in which the opposition takes power is an option, Abrams said, but will require concerted effort from the United States. “As we saw in the rest of South America, democratization is absolutely possible,” he told CFR. “In those cases, it involves a negotiation among the old regime, new regime, and security institutions. U.S. support for democracy is critical. Compromises, such as an offer of amnesty, are universal. The critical missing element today is the United States.”
Trump said the United States would “run” Venezuela “with a group,” but he has not provided any details about who would be on this team. He has dismissed the idea of an election in the mandated thirty-day timeline, but promised to run the country until it was ready for this transition. He has said that when it comes to a U.S. troop presence, “we’re not afraid of boots on the ground.”
What’s the role of Venezuela’s oil sector?
Trump also plans to rebuild the country’s oil infrastructure which, according to the president, will cost “billions of dollars,” with estimates placed in the range of at least $100 billion. Venezuela is home to the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, at around 303 billion barrels, or 17 percent of the global total. This oil has long been politicized, facing years of U.S. sanctions, charges of mismanagement, and disputes over Caracas’s sales to U.S. adversaries—and experts believe it was a motivating factor in the decision to oust Maduro.
“President Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to secure Venezuela’s oil for U.S. firms, and there is no reason to doubt that expanding U.S. firms’ access to Venezuela’s heavy oil and compensation for Venezuela’s previous nationalizations has been at the forefront of his thinking,” said CFR Senior Fellow Brad W. Setser, an expert on global trade and economics. “It certainly seems his current priority is new investments in Venezuela by the U.S. oil companies.”
On January 7, Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that Washington intends to oversee the sale of Venezuela’s oil “indefinitely.” Trump has said that U.S. oil companies are “ready and willing” to enter the country, though energy companies have so far expressed skepticism about the prospect. In the days after Maduro’s seizure, however, shares of the three largest U.S. oil companies began rising.
Trump reportedly said that the United States is “going to keep the oil” in Venezuela, but then later pledged to transfer between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. The United States is “selectively” reducing sanctions to allow the transport and sale of Venezuelan oil on global markets, according to the Department of Energy. Funds from those sales will then be disbursed “for the benefit of the American people and the Venezuelan people.” The U.S. military also captured two oil tankers on January 7 that were allegedly attempting to evade sanctions. One of the ships, Bella-1, was linked to Russia and was being escorted by a Russian submarine; Moscow condemned its seizure.
Waxman warned that the U.S. claim of the country’s vast oil assets is sure to provoke international backlash. “The Trump administration argues that those resources were taken from the United States and its companies in the first place, but it hasn’t laid out and legally justified its plans for retaking them,” he said.
What has been the regional response?
Neighboring Latin American countries have largely condemned the U.S. actions, though many have not acted beyond those statements.
Brazil’s president, despite recognizing Rodríguez as Venezuela’s new leader immediately after Trump did, wrote on social media that the raid crossed a line, as “attacking countries, in flagrant violation of international law, is the first step toward a world of violence, chaos, and instability.” Cuba, which lost thirty-two officers in the January 3 attack on Venezuela, characterized it as a “criminal assault.” Chile and Uruguay also voiced concern and condemnation and called for a peaceful solution to the situation, with Uruguay saying it rejects military intervention. Colombia not only condemned the attack but is bracing for military escalation with the United States. The country’s foreign minister said i its military is prepared to defend its sovereignty if attacked.
Venezuelan allies—and U.S. adversaries—China and Russia have also condemned the U.S. operation.
In contrast, Argentinian President and Trump ally Javier Milei praised the move, saying that “freedom moves forward” as a result. Ecuador, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago all expressed similar sentiments of support for the U.S. intervention.
How have Venezuelans reacted to Maduro’s capture?
Under Maduro’s rule, Venezuela has sunk deeper into a humanitarian crisis, with nearly eight million people fleeing the country since 2014 due to the nationalization of private enterprises, corruption, food and medicine shortages, and frequent power outages. Years of U.S. sanctions on the country’s oil industry—the backbone of Venezuela’s economy—have significantly undercut economic growth, further straining the population.
With this backdrop, there has been an overwhelmingly hopeful outlook from Venezuela and its diaspora since Maduro’s capture. Opposition leader Machado celebrated the move, saying the U.S. government had fulfilled its promise to uphold the law, and called for Edmundo González Urrutia to assume power. A small faction has condemned the operation, with Maduro supporters protesting his extradition, but many Venezuelans reportedly view the moment as life-changing and confusing.
Venezuelans living in the United States remain concerned about the outlook for regime change if they were to return home. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced the day after Maduro’s capture that Venezuelans currently in the country under Temporary Protected Status (TPS)—a program that allows migrants from countries with unsafe conditions to temporarily reside and work legally in the United States—would be able to apply for refugee status. However, she also ended TPS for 500,000 Venezuelans last year, putting thousands more at risk of deportation.
“Now that they are taking [Maduro] away, what’s going to happen?” a Venezuelan man told the BBC. “It doesn’t guarantee us anything. So there is a bit of uncertainty. We don’t know what the coming days will bring.”