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The Water's Edge

James M. Lindsay analyzes the politics shaping U.S. foreign policy and the sustainability of American power.

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A woman casts her vote at a polling station in Seoul, South Korea, May 29, 2025.
A woman casts her vote at a polling station in Seoul, South Korea, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

Ten Elections to Watch in 2026

Numerous countries will hold elections in 2026. Here are ten to watch.

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Diplomacy and International Institutions
The Obama-Caldéron Sudden Summit
Mexican soldiers with Julian Zapata Espinoza, who was arrested in connection with the roadside killing of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Mexico last week. (Henry Romero/courtesy Reuters). With President Obama set to meet with Mexican President Felipe Caldéron tomorrow in Washington, I sat down with the Honorable James Jones to discuss U.S.-Mexico relations. Jim served as U.S. ambassador to Mexico from 1993 to 1997. He was also a seven-term member of Congress from Oklahoma. We discussed what is likely to be on the agenda when Obama and Caldéron meet, the prospects for curtailing the flow of guns from the United States into Mexico, and whether the U.S. Joint Forces Command got it right in 2008 when it named Mexico as one of two countries—along with Pakistan—that could become a failed state. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kkqs0i9z6qI Click here to view this video on YouTube. So far the sudden summit has attracted little news coverage north of the border, which is a shame given the importance of the U.S.-Mexico relationship. The Americas Society offers a brief synopsis of the background events shaping the summit. Mexican officials have captured the man they say runs the drug gang that is accused of killing a U.S. border agent. The gun used to kill the agent and wound his partner has been traced back to Texas. Meanwhile drug-related violence continues in Mexico. Over the weekend fourteen men were killed in shootings along the U.S.-Mexico border, and another fourteen people were killed in attacks along Mexico’s Pacific coast.
Defense and Security
TWE Quick Takes: No Oscar for "Killing in the Name"
Ashraf Al-Khaled (L) and Carie Lemack of the film nominated for best short documentary, "Killing in the Name," arrive at the 83rd Academy Awards. (Lucy Nicholson/courtesy Reuters) I forced myself to watch the Oscars last night. My reward for sitting through an hour-plus of forced banter and lame jokes—please bring back Billy Crystal–was disappointment. Killing in the Name did not win the Oscar for Best Documentary Short Subject. Everyone at CFR remains nonetheless proud of what Carie Lemack accomplished. We hope she enjoyed the awards ceremony despite the outcome and despite the grueling schedule that the Academy puts its nominees through. Most important, I hope that the Oscar ceremony helps get the message of Killing in the Name out to a wider audience. In other news, the White House announced that President Obama will hold a surprise summit meeting later this week with Mexican President Felipe Caldéron. U.S.-Mexican relations are going through a tough patch. As my colleague Shannon O’Neil writes, the murder of one U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent and the wounding of another in an attack on the road from Monterrey to Mexico City has brought the tensions to a head. I hope that Presidents Obama and Caldéron succeed in getting U.S.-Mexican relations back on track. The high and growing level of drug-related violence in Mexico—more than 30,000 Mexicans have died in drug-related violence over the past five years—is worrying. I am not optimistic, however, that we will see any major breakthroughs. A big part of Mexico’s drug violence problem resides north of the border. Americans buy illicit drugs, and we ship guns back across the border. Washington doesn’t look to be getting serious about either issue. Indeed, legislation working its way through Congress would make it harder for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives to disrupt the trafficking of guns to Mexico. Secretary of Defense Bob Gates went to West Point on Friday to address the cadets. His speech contained a lot of the usual stuff you would expect a defense secretary to say to soon-to-be officers. But one passage caught my eye: The strategic rationale for swift-moving expeditionary forces, be they Army or Marines, airborne infantry or special operations, is self-evident given the likelihood of counterterrorism, rapid reaction, disaster response, or stability or security force assistance missions. But in my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should “have his head examined,” as General MacArthur so delicately put it. In case the cadets missed his point, Gates added: “The odds of repeating another Afghanistan or Iraq–invading, pacifying, and administering a large third world country—may be low.” I hope the secretary is right, but history suggests he won’t be. After lengthy and fruitless U.S. occupations of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Nicaragua in the first few decades of the twentieth century, Americans vowed not to repeat those mistakes. No one wanted another land war in Asia after Korea. It was gospel after Vietnam that the United States would never again blunder into a prolonged military occupation of a far away land. And when we invaded Iraq we assumed that we would bring the troops home quickly. Why do we keep rediscovering painful lessons learned by earlier generations? No doubt it’s in part because when new problems come along doing nothing looks more dangerous than doing something. But it may also have to do with our national character. We are an optimistic country. We are usually either too busy peering into the future to learn from the past, or if we remember the past, we convince ourselves that this time things will be different. Often times they aren’t.
Politics and Government
Friday File: Washington Braces for the Showdown over the Government Shutdown
Senate Budget Committee Ranking member Jeff Sessions and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan speak in response to President Barack Obama's Fiscal Year 2010 budget in Washington. (Jason Reed/courtesy Reuters) Above the Fold. We are now officially on the Uncle Sam shutdown showdown watch. Unless the White House and Congress agree by next Friday, March 4, on a continuing resolution (or CR as it is known in the trade) to fund the federal government, all “non-essential” government programs will halt. That means that U.S. troops will keep fighting in Afghanistan, the Border Patrol will keep manning the borders, air traffic controllers will keep scanning the skies, and veterinarians will keep tending to animals in U.S. research laboratories. But if you are planning to visit the Washington Monument, hike Yellowstone, renew your passport, or take out a home mortgage loan you will be out of luck. So will we avoid a shutdown? Probably, at least for a time. Democrats and Republicans alike say they want to avoid a shutdown, and both sides have public relations reasons to agree to a temporary, stop-gap CR that buys a couple extra weeks of negotiating time. One thing to watch for is division within Democratic ranks. Many Democrats on Capitol Hill think that a government shutdown will hurt Republicans because that is how the 1995 government shutdown played out. The White House worries that this time will be different and that President Obama will get blamed for failing to forge a compromise. CFR Event of the Week. Americans seldom think much about Canada, unless they are hockey fans or planning a vacation to the glorious Canadian Rockies. But we are blessed to have Canada as our neighbor. The 5,525-mile-long U.S.-Canadian border is the longest undefended border in the world. And Canada buys more of our exports than anyone else—as anyone who sits in line waiting to cross the Ambassador Bridge from Detroit to Windsor, Ontario knows from experience. So CFR was fortunate this week to host Lawrence Cannon, Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. Cannon emphasized the importance of the U.S.-Canada relationship, argued against protectionist measures, and advocated joint action to encourage job creation. You can read the transcript, watch the video, or download the audio to go. Read of the Week. The inimitable Walter Russell Mead asks what the rise of the Tea Party means for American foreign policy. His answer in a nutshell: Much depends on which wing of the Tea Party prevails—the Palin-ite wing that champions the war on terror or the Paul-ite wing that comes close to embracing traditional isolationism. Blog Post of the Week. The New Yorker’s Andrew Solomon, who profiled Col. Qaddafi in the magazine back in 2006, looks at the reasons why his regime is on the brink. A big part of the reason is that oil-rich Libya is one of the wealthiest countries in Africa but most Libyans live in dire poverty. Poll Question of the Week. Should the United States "take the leading role in world affairs, take a major role but not the leading role, take a minor role, or take no role at all in world affairs?" Gallup asked this question earlier this month and found that a majority of Americans remain internationalists. Two-thirds say the United States should take a leading or major role in world affairs, while one-third say a minor role or no role at all. These numbers correspond with  other recent polls. The trend, however, is in the direction of “mind-your-own-business.” The percentage saying leading/major role fell thirteen points from the peak set back in 2003, while the percentage saying minor/no role rose an equal amount. One thing to watch for as we head into presidential campaign season is whether any Republican candidate seeks to tap into the “butt-out” sentiment. Chart of the Week. Two years ago Andrew Natsios and Kelley Doley warned that rising grain prices would bring about a wave of food coups. That’s one prediction that unfortunately turned out to be right. Many observers point to rising food prices as one of the drivers of recent unrest in the Middle East. World Bank president Robert Zoellick warned last week that soaring food prices could threaten further political instability. The Food and Agriculture Organization reports that its Food Price Index has reached an all-time high. Of four common grains, only rice prices have fallen. (Technical note: Yes, botanically speaking corn is a grain and not a vegetable.) Too Good Not to Note. The New Yorker’s Steve Coll looks at the Obama administration’s effort to open talks with senior members of the Taliban. Dafna Linzer asks why so many of the answers on the U.S. citizenship test are wrong. Jon Stewart discusses the Iraq War with former Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld in a three part interview—part 1, part 2, and part 3. Perils of Prediction. “Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!" Nikita Khruschev’s boast in November 1956 that the Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc allies would prevail in their struggle with the capitalist West. Quote to Ponder. “Discipline is doing what you don’t want to do when you don’t want to do it.” Sign in the wrestling room at Graham High School in St. Paris, Ohio. A Reason to Smile. Crocuses in bloom.
  • Diplomacy and International Institutions
    TWE Remembers: John Foster Dulles
    Every day thousands of people fly into and out of Washington’s Dulles International Airport. Few of them think about the man for whom the airport is named, John Foster Dulles. He was born on this day in 1888 in Washington, D.C. Dulles may be unknown to most Americans today, but as Dwight D. Eisenhower’s secretary of state in the 1950s he was a titan of American foreign policy. Dulles had good bloodlines. He was the grandson of one secretary of state, John W. Foster, who served under Benjamin Harrison. He was the nephew of another, Robert Lansing, who was Woodrow Wilson’s second secretary of state. His younger brother, Allen, was the first civilian director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Dulles had impeccable credentials to go along with his impressive lineage. A Phi Beta Kappa at Princeton, he got his law degree from George Washington University. He served as one of Woodrow Wilson’s negotiators at the Paris Peace Conference that yielded the Treaty of Versailles. (It could not have hurt his effort to land the job that his uncle was the sitting secretary of state.) He later worked for one of New York City’s most prestigious law firms, Sullivan and Cromwell, eventually heading it up. He became a close confidante of New York governor Thomas Dewey of “Dewey Defeats Truman” fame. He advised Sen. Arthur Vandenberg during the 1945 San Francisco Conference that drafted the UN Charter. (Vandenberg was an official congressional observer for the U.S. delegation.) He briefly served as a senator from New York in 1949, filling out an unexpired term. Dulles was deeply religious and a firm believer in American exceptionalism. He took pride in the fact that “nobody in the Department of State knows as much about the Bible as I do.” He came to office hoping to make the administration’s “political thoughts and practices reflect more faithfully a religious faith that man has his origin and destiny in God.” (Politics and religion mixed in American politics long before the rise of the so-called Religious Right.) Dulles’s deep religious beliefs left him suspicious of compromise and prone to self-righteousness, two flaws not lost on others. Winston Churchill occasionally mocked him as “Dullith” and once quipped that Dulles was the only bull that carried his own china shop with him. Eisenhower remarked that Dulles exhibited “a curious lack of understanding of how his words and manner may affect another personality.” Dulles could be flexible, however, when it served his career goals. After World War II, he championed bipartisanship and worked closely with Harry Truman’s secretary of state Dean Acheson on a final peace treaty with Japan. But with the 1952 Republican Party platform decrying containment as a “negative, futile, and immoral” policy that abandoned “countless human beings to a despotism and Godless terrorism” and Richard Nixon, Eisenhower’s running mate, denouncing “Acheson’s Cowardly College of Communist Containment,” Dulles decided that containment was a defeatist treadmill policy that, “at best, might perhaps keep us in the same place until we drop exhausted.” Dulles is associated with three major policy ideas. The first was called liberation or rollback policy. It held that rather than containing the Soviet Union the United States should roll back communist gains in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. During the 1952 campaign, Dulles vowed that “we can never rest until the enslaved nations of the world have in the fullness of freedom their right to choose their own path.”  Dulles wanted a “policy of boldness” that would make enslavement “so unprofitable that the master will let go his grip.” The other two ideas were massive retaliation and brinkmanship. Massive retaliation held that the United States should, in Dulles’s words, develop the ability “to retaliate instantly against open aggression by Red armies, so that if it occurred anywhere, we could and would strike back where it hurts, by means of our choosing.” Brinkmanship referred to the refusal to back down in a crisis, even if it meant risking war. As Dulles wrote, “the ability to get to the verge without getting into war is the necessary art.  If you cannot master it, you inevitably get into war.  If you try to run away from it, if you are scared to go to the brink, you are lost.” Dulles’s talk of liberation, massive retaliation, and brinksmanship remained just that. When East Germans rebelled in 1953 and Hungarians revolted in 1956, Washington did not match its bold words with equal action. Yet neither Dulles (nor Eisenhower) suffered politically at home because they chose to sit on the sidelines. Indeed, as the historian Stephen Ambrose writes in The Rise to Globalism, Eisenhower and Dulles were popular precisely because “they were unwilling to make peace but they would not go to war.” Dulles also led one of the more shameful episodes in American history, the purge of State Department officials suspected of being “disloyal.” The hunt for “subversives,” to borrow a favorite term from the era, found vanishingly few traitors but ruined the careers of many Foreign Service officers. Several of the State Department’s “Asia hands” were driven from the service because they made the mistake of correctly predicting the communist takeover of China. The result of the firings, as the journalist Theodore H. White wrote, “was to poke out the eyes and ears of the State Department on Asian Affairs, to blind American foreign policy.” A final question is how much Dulles mattered to Eisenhower’s foreign policy choices. During the 1950s, Dulles received considerable credit. Ike’s own lack of oratorical grace—his speeches sometimes left his audiences wondering what he had just said—and his willingness to let Dulles be the public face of his foreign policy prompted much talk that the secretary of state dominated their partnership. Eisenhower himself bristled at such suggestions. He once remarked that he knew of “only one man . . . who has seen more of the world and talked with more people and knows more than [Dulles], and that’s me.” Few historians today would argue that Dulles led Eisenhower. As Princeton University professor Fred Greenstein has written, Eisenhower was a skilled politician whose “hidden hand leadership” dominated policy making. Or as Richard Immerman has put it, although Eisenhower and Dulles “held strikingly parallel views . . . the documents confirm that it was the president who made the decisions.” All of which illustrates a general rule of American politics: a secretary of state—or any presidential adviser for that matter—shapes policy only the extent that he or she has the president’s ear.
  • Diplomacy and International Institutions
    The World Next Week: Libya on the Brink
    A protester holds a banner while protesters chant anti-government slogans in Benghazi city. (Asmaa Waguih/courtesy Reuters) The podcast for The World Next Week is up. Bob McMahon and I talked about the continued protests in Libya; the prospect of a government shut-down as the budget impasse persists; Apple’s release of a new iPad; and the Oscars. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/podcast/2011/20110224_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: The international community has roundly condemned Col. Qaddafi’s effort to cling to power, but no one knows what might replace his regime. The federal budget brawl is producing a shutdown showdown that both political parties think they can win; one will turn out to be wrong. The new iPad will come with more bells and whistles, but the bigger story is how the competition between Apple and Google over how to compensate content generators for their work could help the ailing news business. Killing in the Name is an Academy Award nominated documentary that is worth seeing. Bob and I aren’t the only commentators thinking about these issues. The New York Times reports on Qaddafi’s efforts to quell the protests. To learn more about the international responses to the turmoil, watch President Obama’s remarks on the situation and read about steps to create a no-fly zone over Libya. Jamie Fly thinks about how international affairs and defense figure in discussions of mushrooming deficits, and the Washington Post covers proposals for another stopgap funding bill to keep the government running. Technorati tells us what we can expect of the new iPad, and Reuters discusses the iPad alliance between News Corp and Apple.