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January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

December 3, 2019

Election 2020
Meet Michael Bloomberg, Democratic Presidential Candidate

Update: Michael Bloomberg announced on March 4, 2020, that he was ending his campaign. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg seems to be taking the advice of John Maynard Keynes. The legendary e…

Michael Bloomberg

July 26, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s “Voluntary” Restructuring of GDB Bonds

Puerto Rico’s Oversight Board didn’t object to the terms of Puerto Rico’s proposed restructuring of the Government Development Bank bonds (and selected deposits) so it looks like the GDB restructurin…

November 25, 2019

Europe
Europe Wants Strategic Autonomy, but That Is Much Easier Said Than Done

Achieving strategic autonomy will require Europeans to develop a coherent strategic culture, reach agreement on  priorities, and reassure U.S. leaders that greater autonomy is complementary to NATO. …

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel take part in the launching of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).

November 22, 2019

Election 2020
Campaign Foreign Policy Roundup: The Fifth Democratic Debate

Each Friday, I look at what the presidential challengers are saying about foreign policy. This week: the Democratic debate, Israeli settlements, China's human rights abuses, and Bolivia. 

Presidential candidates listen to Bernie Sanders speak.

September 27, 2018

Puerto Rico
Will the Proposed Restructuring of COFINA Bonds Assure Puerto Rico’s Return to Debt Sustainability?

Puerto Rico’s government and the bulk of the holders of Puerto Rico’s Sales tax backed bonds (COFINA) appear to have reached agreement on restructuring terms (details here). The deal will reduce Puer…

Will the Proposed Restructuring of COFINA Bonds Assure Puerto Rico’s Return to Debt Sustainability?

November 20, 2019

Sri Lanka
The Geopolitical Consequences of the Sri Lankan Election

Sri Lankans went to the polls November 16 to elect a president, and former Secretary of Defense Gotabaya Rajapaksa was declared the winner on November 17. Sri Lanka faces significant national securit…

A soldier stands guard at a campaign rally for Gotabaya Rajapaksa, at podium, in Bandaragama earlier this month.

December 1, 2016

China
China’s Bond Market Can’t Handle a Global RMB

    The Chinese RMB’s ascension into the IMF’s SDR currency basket in October has been widely seen as an important first step on its path to becoming a global reserve currency.  But we woul…

China’s Bond Market Can’t Handle a Global RMB

November 10, 2019

United States
Happy 244th Birthday to the United States Marine Corps!

The U.S. Marine Corps turns 244 years-old today. On November 10, 1775, the Continental Congress adopted a resolution to create a Marine force composed of two battalions. Since then, the Marines have …

U.S. Marine Corps

November 13, 2019

United States
A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet

Most grandiose explanations for the United States' persistent surplus in the income balance of the U.S. current account miss the mark. The U.S. debt position tracks the sum of past current account de…

A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet