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September 27, 2018

Puerto Rico
Will the Proposed Restructuring of COFINA Bonds Assure Puerto Rico’s Return to Debt Sustainability?

Puerto Rico’s government and the bulk of the holders of Puerto Rico’s Sales tax backed bonds (COFINA) appear to have reached agreement on restructuring terms (details here). The deal will reduce Puer…

Will the Proposed Restructuring of COFINA Bonds Assure Puerto Rico’s Return to Debt Sustainability?

November 14, 2018

Financial Markets
Is There a Financial Time Bomb in Sight?

If an expert committee makes the wrong call on Thursday, there is a disquieting possibility that the cliff may be in sight.

A store closing sale sign is posted next to a Sears logo in New Hyde Park, New York.

November 15, 2018

United States
Presidents and War Powers

PDF Version. A review of Michael Beschloss, “Presidents of War” (Crown Books, 2018).  *** The U.S. Constitution vests the president with “executive power” and provides that “The President sh…

Lectern with presidential seal

November 10, 2018

United States
Happy 243rd Birthday to the United States Marine Corps!

The Marine Corps turns 243 years-old today. On November 10, 1775, the Continental Congress adopted a resolution to create a Marine force composed of two battalions. Since then, the Marines have been …

USMC birthday

November 13, 2018

Puerto Rico
Could Maria’s Legacy Be a New Debt Trap for Puerto Rico?

President Trump is right to worry that disaster aid will end up bailing out the holders of Puerto Rico's bonds, but there are better solutions to that particular problem than cutting off disaster aid…

Could Maria’s Legacy Be a New Debt Trap for Puerto Rico?

November 8, 2018

Monetary Policy
The Role of the U.S. Federal Reserve

The role of the Federal Reserve has transformed in the past decade, as it has deployed trillions of dollars to boost the U.S. economy while expanding its regulatory oversight of the nation’s financia…

Federal Reserve

November 2, 2018

United States
Stephen Kotkin’s “Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929–1941” Wins 2018 CFR Arthur Ross Book Award

November 2, 2018—Professor Stephen Kotkin has won the seventeenth annual Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Arthur Ross Book Award for Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929–1941 (Random House), the second…

October 30, 2018

Economics
The Fed Should End Forward Guidance

In the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, we examined the change over time in the market reaction to Fed “forward guidance” on future interest rates. During the crisis, with the Fed’s policy…

The Fed Should End Forward Guidance

October 30, 2018

China
Where Will the Yuan Go Next? China's Big Choice

China could widen the trading band around its currency in response to Trump's tariffs, but that wouldn't give it full policy autonomy. It would still need to defend the new edge of any trading band.

Where Will the Yuan Go Next?  China's Big Choice

October 24, 2018

Central America
Trump’s Cuts to Central America Aid Will Lead to More Caravans

U.S. programs can make the Northern Triangle a better place to live than to leave.

Central American migrants walk along a street, as they continue their journey trying to reach the U.S., in Tapachula, Mexico October 22, 2018.