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October 2, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico Before Maria Puerto Rico Before Maria

My new discussion paper with Greg Makoff on economic and demographic trends in Puerto Rico.

February 22, 2018

Puerto Rico
Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Positive Growth Shock for Puerto Rico? Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Positive Growth Shock for Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico’s latest fiscal plan appears to use a best case scenario as its base case. It consequently doesn’t provide a realistic benchmark for evaluating Puerto Rico’s long-run capacity to pay.

September 27, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rican and U.S. Flags Puerto Rico After Maria: Initial Thoughts on the Fiscal and Economic Implications

Puerto Rico faced immense challenges even before the devastation from Hurricane Maria. Its economy is 15 percent smaller now than it was ten years ago, and the latest high frequency indicators from t…

October 10, 2017

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico Update: PROMESA, Population Trends, Risks to the Fiscal and Economic Plan—and Now Maria

A new report from the Center for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), co-authored by Brad W. Setser and Gregory Makoff.

July 16, 2018

Puerto Rico
Looking Back on Fiscal 2018 as Puerto Rico Starts a New Fiscal Year Looking Back on Fiscal 2018 as Puerto Rico Starts a New Fiscal Year

Sales tax revenues have recovered. Fiscal year 2019, which started in July, should be a good year thanks to Federal disaster aid. The real question though is what happens when Federal aid starts to f…

May 8, 2018

United States
A Salvadoran immigrant waits for an elevator at the New York Immigration Coalition following President Trump's announcement to end TPS for Salvadorans. What Is Temporary Protected Status?

The Trump administration has taken away legal status for hundreds of thousands of migrants, most of whom have lived in the United States for more than fifteen years.

April 19, 2018

Puerto Rico
The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic The Oversight Board’s Latest Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico is Still Too Optimistic

The power is off in Puerto Rico, again. It may not be restored for a day or two. Puerto Rico obviously has yet to fully recover from Maria’s devastation. Tax revenues this fiscal year are off by o…

October 30, 2012

Corporate Governance
Emergency personnel help a resident onto a boat after rescuing her from flood waters brought on by Hurricane Sandy in Little Ferry, New Jersey on October 30, 2012 (Adam Hunger/Courtesy Reuters). Hurricane Sandy: A Lesson in Why Governments Really Matter

Grover Norquist, the anti-tax crusader, has famously said that he has no wish to eliminate government, but only to “shrink it to the size where we can drown it in a bathtub.” Americans up and down th…

April 19, 2018

Sudan
Women carry identification papers during the registration for a Darfur referendum, at a registration centre at Abo-Shouk IDP camp at Al Fashir in North Darfur, February 17, 2016. Five Questions on the Sudan Peace Process

The Five Questions Series is a forum for scholars, government officials, civil society leaders, and foreign policy practitioners to provide timely analysis of new developments related to the advancem…