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August 24, 2009

Monetary Policy
Iran

This chart plots oil prices against Iran’s estimated import bill “break-even” oil price — the price below which Iran either had, or would have had, to find sources of hard currency other than oil e…

2009.8.10.OilImportBillBreakeven3.0

June 27, 2018

Iran
Oil Geopolitics and Iran’s Response

At first glance, last week’s Vienna Group meeting—that is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus non-OPEC producers including Russia—seemed to have resolved some thorny issues…

Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh arrives for an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 22, 2018.

October 5, 2018

International Law
Thoughts on the ICJ’s Decision in Iran v United States and the Trump Administration’s Treaty Withdrawals

The following is a guest post by John B. Bellinger III, adjunct senior fellow for international and national security law at the Council on Foreign Relations. This post originally ran on Lawfare. …

A general view shows the International Court of Justice in The Hague

April 30, 2018

Women and Women's Rights
Women This Week: Insurrection in Iran

Welcome to “Women Around the World: This Week,” a series that highlights noteworthy news related to women and U.S. foreign policy. This week’s post, covering April 23 to April 30, was compiled with s…

Women wait for a bus in central Tehran, Iran

January 4, 2018

Iran
Oil and the Iran Protests

It doesn’t take much these days to remind oil traders that Middle East geopolitical risk can raise oil prices. Unrest in Iranian cities is the latest case in point. News and video records of major pr…

A gas flare on an oil production platform is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Gulf July 25, 2005.

May 25, 2018

Iran
The Complicated Geopolitics of U.S. Oil Sanctions on Iran

U.S.-Iranian conflict resolution is in flux following withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and it remains unclear whether sanctions will be sufficient to force Iran back to the negotiating table. A deeper dive into the energy realpolitik of the matter reveals a host of barriers to improving the status quo in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after signing a proclamation declaring his intention to withdraw from the JCPOA Iran nuclear agreement in the Diplomatic Room at the White House in Washington, U.S. May 8, 2018.

December 20, 2017

United States
The Iran Deal Saga Continues

An important legislative deadline passed last week in Washington without much mention. You might remember that back on October 13, President Donald Trump announced he would not certify that Iran was …

trump iran deal

May 24, 2018

North Korea
On North Korea, Iran, and Trump

The cancellation of the US/North Korea meeting begins, in my view, with the JCPOA. Logic suggests that what Kim really wanted from the new administration was a JCPOA of his own. That is, he wanted…

December 7, 2018

Saudi Arabia
OPEC’s Bigger Problems

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decision to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day (b/d), together with Russia and a few other non-OPEC producers, may have garnered …

Oil pours out of a spout.

August 17, 2017

Iran
"Reform" in Iran

During June’s presidential election in Iran, many Westerners strongly hoped for a Hassan Rouhani victory. Rouhani, the incumbent president, was a “moderate,” the argument went, and during the campaig…