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August 24, 2009

Monetary Policy
2009.8.10.OilImportBillBreakeven3.0 Iran

This chart plots oil prices against Iran’s estimated import bill “break-even” oil price — the price below which Iran either had, or would have had, to find sources of hard currency other than oil e…

April 30, 2018

Women and Women's Rights
Women wait for a bus in central Tehran, Iran Women This Week: Insurrection in Iran

Welcome to “Women Around the World: This Week,” a series that highlights noteworthy news related to women and U.S. foreign policy. This week’s post, covering April 23 to April 30, was compiled with s…

May 25, 2018

Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after signing a proclamation declaring his intention to withdraw from the JCPOA Iran nuclear agreement in the Diplomatic Room at the White House in Washington, U.S. May 8, 2018. The Complicated Geopolitics of U.S. Oil Sanctions on Iran

U.S.-Iranian conflict resolution is in flux following withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and it remains unclear whether sanctions will be sufficient to force Iran back to the negotiating table. A deeper dive into the energy realpolitik of the matter reveals a host of barriers to improving the status quo in the Middle East.

May 24, 2018

North Korea
On North Korea, Iran, and Trump

The cancellation of the US/North Korea meeting begins, in my view, with the JCPOA. Logic suggests that what Kim really wanted from the new administration was a JCPOA of his own. That is, he wanted…

May 9, 2018

Iran Nuclear Agreement
John Bolton Iran Nuclear Deal Iran: Keep Your Finger Off the Cyber Button

Tehran could respond to the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal with cyber operations against U.S. companies. If it does, that might give the hawks in the White House the excuse they need to t…

January 4, 2018

Iran
A gas flare on an oil production platform is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Gulf July 25, 2005. Oil and the Iran Protests

It doesn’t take much these days to remind oil traders that Middle East geopolitical risk can raise oil prices. Unrest in Iranian cities is the latest case in point. News and video records of major pr…

December 20, 2017

United States
trump iran deal The Iran Deal Saga Continues

An important legislative deadline passed last week in Washington without much mention. You might remember that back on October 13, President Donald Trump announced he would not certify that Iran was …

February 5, 2018

Iran
Iran's Imperial Ambitions Challenge Middle East Borders

In May, 2017 Major General Qassem Soleimani, chief of the Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps’ foreign operations branch known as the Qods Force, visited the Iraq/Syria border in the company of an Iran-…

April 13, 2018

Iran
A photo distributed by the Houthi Military Media Unit shows the launch by Houthi forces of a ballistic missile aimed at Saudi Arabia March 25, 2018. Pompeo, the Iran Deal, and the Asymmetric Proxy War

U.S. Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo said yesterday at his Senate confirmation hearings that he would actively try to “fix” the Iran deal, working with U.S. allies to “achieve a better outcome…

August 17, 2017

Iran
"Reform" in Iran

During June’s presidential election in Iran, many Westerners strongly hoped for a Hassan Rouhani victory. Rouhani, the incumbent president, was a “moderate,” the argument went, and during the campaig…