• Thailand
    What Does Thailand’s Article 44 Mean for Thailand’s International Relations?
    Thailand’s ruling junta now has replaced martial law, which had been in force since the coup in May 2014, with legislation under Article 44 of the interim constitution. This shift has been heavily criticized by human rights organizations, many foreign countries, and some Thai media outlets. Human Rights Watch has called the shift to operating under Article 44 an attempt to give Prayuth “unlimited powers without safeguards against human rights violations.” The New York Times, in an editorial released April 10, called the shift “trickery and false promises”---“a cynical sleight of hand” that has only given “even more draconian powers for the ruling military junta led by Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha.” In response, Thailand’s new ambassador to the United States, in a letter to the New York Times, claimed that the Times editorial had it all wrong---that under Article 44, the junta operates under measures “limited in scope [and] governed by due process” and that, “since May 2014, Thailand’s leaders have lifted the country out of political paralysis and violence.” Yet despite the new Thai ambassador’s charm offensive in America, the Thai government also appears to be realizing that it is unlikely to change many democracies’ opinion of it, as long as unelected leaders remain in power in Bangkok. At first, in the months following the May 2014 coup, Thai diplomats, and the junta leaders themselves, aggressively tried to shape global opinion of the putsch. This outreach was followed by a period, earlier this year, of angry backlash against even the most muted foreign criticism. When Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel made a speech in Bangkok in January at Chulalongkorn University, he noted that “our [the United States’] relationship with Thailand has been challenged by the military coup that removed a democratically-elected government eight months ago.” He also urged Thailand to end martial law and visited former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and other politicians, from both major political parties, who had been sidelined by the coup. The Thai government reacted furiously, summoning the charge d’affaires from the U.S. embassy in Bangkok (who was the top American diplomat in Thailand at the time, since the ambassador post was vacant) and expressing extreme disappointment with Russel’s comments. Now, Bangkok appears, for the most part, to be recognizing that its relations with democracies will remain strained---the United States recently put off planning for next year’s Cobra Gold exercises, for example. While Prayuth has been promoting closer strategic and economic ties with China almost since the day after the coup, the Thai government also recently has begun aggressively courting other governments that have been uncritical of the junta. When Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited Bangkok in early April, Bangkok and Moscow inked deals to increase Russian direct investment in Thailand, and vice versa; the two sides hope to double bilateral trade within two years. The two sides also agreed to facilitate greater Russian investment in Thailand’s energy sector. (Medvedev, of course, offered no criticism of Prayuth’s human rights record, and Prayuth called Russia a “friend” for standing by Thailand after the coup.) Meanwhile, Prayuth’s government also has been trying to foster closer strategic ties with India, which despite its own vibrant democracy tends to be uncritical of the rights records of other nations in its neighborhood. This outreach to Russia, China, and other powers who express no interest in critiquing Thailand’s rights record is a savvy move by the junta. It could put pressure on the European Union, the United States, Australia, and, most importantly, Japan to warm up strategic ties with Thailand again. But Thailand’s economy will remain in serious trouble. As long as Thailand’s politics remain unstable, all the deals signed with Moscow or Beijing are not going to lure more investment from the biggest foreign players in Thailand---Japan, most notably.
  • Asia
    Bridging Cooperation and Competition in Asia
    Play
    Experts discuss the future of Asia's multilateral and bilateral mechanisms.
  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of April 17, 2015
    Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, William Piekos, and Ariella Rotenberg look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Japan court blocks reopening of nuclear reactors. A Japanese district court issued orders for two nuclear reactors in western Fukui prefecture to stay offline, rejecting regulators’ safety approval of the planned restart later this year. The court criticized the Nuclear Regulation Authority’s lax safety standards, particularly in the wake of the March 2011 Fukushima crisis. Kansai Electric, the operators of the reactors in Fukui, plan to file a protest asking the court to reverse its decision. With all forty-eight commercial reactors in Japan still offline, the decision may further delay Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plans to restart nuclear reactors. Abe has said the shutdown damages the struggling Japanese economy, forcing Japan to import expensive fossil fuels to compensate for the existing energy deficit. 2. China registers slowest economic growth rate in six years. Chinese economic growth slackened to 7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, its slowest pace since 2009. A number of economic indicators suggested such a downturn: industrial production increased at its slowest pace since late 2008; retail sales grew at the slowest rate in nearly a decade; and land purchases by developers fell 32 percent in the first quarter. At a conference before the data was released, Premier Li Keqiang stated that “economic data in the first quarter are not pretty,” but also that “our toolbox still has many policy tools, and the biggest tool is reform.” Many economists expect Beijing to counter the slowdown with interest rate cuts to encourage more lending. Economic growth remains in line with the government’s goal of “around 7 percent” growth for 2015; for its part, the Economist sees the slowdown as “not a cyclical blip but a structural downshift.” 3. South Korean bribery scandal and Sewol anniversary shake Park Geun-hye’s approval rating. Sung Wan-jong, chairman of a construction firm that allegedly was a graft recipient, claimed he paid bribes to leading Park administration officials, including Prime Minister Lee Wan-koo. Following his admission, Sung committed suicide, adding further scrutiny to the investigation. President Park Geun-hye has sought to distance herself from the scandal. Speaking through New Frontier Party Leader Kim Moo-sung, Park has promised to put an end to suspicion, indicating openness to a possible independent investigation. Park this week is also dealing with closer criticism for her handling of the one-year anniversary on Thursday of the Sewol ferry sinking, including even the victims’ families’ protest at the memorial service. She currently faces multiple hits to her ever-declining approval rating (now at 34 percent, down five points from the week prior) following a variety of scandals since the 2012 presidential elections. While the first scandals did not seem to affect her administration’s approval rating, since the Sewol ferry sinking her administration and governance has been object of close scrutiny. 4. Concerns echo over China’s activities in the South China Sea. This week, Philippine President Benigno Aquino emphasized that the world--not just countries in the region--should be concerned about Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, citing threats to global trade. New satellite images revealed that China is making significant progress on an airstrip for possible military use in one area of the contested Spratly Islands, which are claimed in part or whole by China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. At a Group of Seven meeting this week, foreign ministers released a statement opposing attempts to unilaterally change the status quo in the East and South China Seas, words clearly intended for Beijing. Meanwhile, Japan logged its second-highest number of jet scrambles this year since 1958. The recent uptick is partially due to tensions with China in the East China Sea, but also a land dispute with Russia. 5. Narendra Modi jet sets to France, Germany, and Canada. This week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi completed his longest foreign tour to date: nine days to France, Germany, and Canada. The purpose of Modi’s trip was to promote India as a stable location for foreign investment and new business development. In particular he focused on his government’s “Make in India” initiative and allayed concerns about the ease of doing business in India. In France, Modi met with President Francois Hollande and several key French chief executive officers. One significant outcome of the meetings was India’s purchase of thirty-six Rafale fighter aircraft in fly-away condition “as quickly as possible.” In Germany, an important step was taken with Modi’s promise to set up a formal mechanism to ease German investment in India—a measure previously only taken for Japan and the United States. In Canada, Modi was the first Indian prime minister to visit in a stand-alone bilateral capacity in forty-two years; he and Prime Minister Stephen Harper came to agreement on a wide array of issues including energy policy and health investment. Bonus: Indonesia looks to criminalize alcohol consumption. Introduced first by Islamic parties in 2012, lawmakers from Indonesia’s secular political parties have added their voices in support of a bill prohibiting the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Indonesia. The bill, if fully enacted, would prohibit the sale, production, distribution, and consumption of all beverages containing more than one percent alcohol. According to the draft text, any person consuming alcoholic beverages will face between two and ten years in prison, or a fine up to one billion rupiah ($77,059). Convenience stores have already pulled alcohol from their shelves, sparking fears that the new regulations will hurt tourism in Bali and elsewhere. Corrections: An earlier version of this article misstated the current month--we are happy to confirm that it is April, not March still--and the title of Francois Hollande of France. He is president, not prime minister.
  • Americas
    Hitting the Restart on U.S.-Latin America Ties
    The U.S.-Cuba rapprochement means that leaders at the upcoming Summit of the Americas can focus less on regional tensions and more on issues such as trade, immigration, and security, says CFR’s Shannon K. O’Neil.
  • Global
    Global Health Goal Hits and Misses
    A review of the Millennium Development Goals winding down in 2015 offers insights on global health efforts that could inform an even more ambitious UN initiative set to launch this year, writes CFR’s Laurie Garrett. 
  • Digital Policy
    Promoting Norms for Cyberspace
    The United States defined its preferred cyberspace norms—Internet openness, security, liberty, free speech, and with minimal government oversight and surveillance—in its 2011 International Strategy for Cyberspace. Although the United States has had little success so far in establishing norms against commercial espionage in cyberspace, it has had some early gains with the recognition that international law applies to state activity in cyberspace and that human rights protections that apply offline also apply online. These efforts to define shared norms have been accompanied by a process of norm promotion that suffered a significant setback in the summer of 2013 with the Snowden disclosures. The U.S. government should reinvigorate its efforts to spread and encourage the adoption of its preferred norms with the following steps: reform U.S. intelligence activities to make them more consistent with the publicly expressed norms of Internet openness that the United States is trying to establish;  disclose more convincing evidence when trying to shame actors that do not abide by cybersecurity norms; and encourage other states and civil society actors to take a leading role in norm promotion—even when this cuts against U.S. interests. Background: Why Norms? U.S. policymakers argue that the United States and others need to build norms to mitigate cybersecurity problems. Admiral Michael S. Rogers, head of the National Security Agency (NSA) and Cyber Command, has argued that shared norms are a basic building block for cybersecurity. He has called on actors in academia and civil society to help design them and to assist in their spread. It may seem strange that Pentagon officials are arguing for soft tools rather than hard military options, but there are four good reasons why norms are the best option available. First, the United States is vulnerable to cyberattacks and this weakness is difficult to address using conventional tools of military statecraft. Second, it is difficult to ensure that complex information systems are fully defended, since they may have subtle technical weaknesses. Third, classical deterrence is not easy in a world where it is often challenging to identify sophisticated attackers, or even to know when an attack has taken place. Lastly, treaties are hard to enforce because it is so difficult to verify compliance—particularly in cyberspace, where weapons are software, not missiles. Although norms are hazier than treaty rules, they may still have important consequences. Norms against the use of nuclear weapons have taken hold since the 1950s, making their use nearly unthinkable in ordinary circumstances. Robust cybersecurity norms might, over time, rule out some kinds of attacks as normatively inappropriate. They might encourage other states to see norm breaches as attacks on their security, too, spurring cooperation to prevent or stop attacks. Finally, norms can provide shared understandings between states that allow them to work together where they have shared interests and manage relations where their interests clash. Challenges to Norm Promotion It is hard to spread norms, even in the best circumstances. Unfortunately, these are far from the best circumstances for the United States. U.S. policymakers face three major problems. First, it is easiest to promote norms when one can invoke common values to support them, yet the world's cyber powers have different—and radically incompatible—values over how to protect cyberspace. The clashing interests between democratic and authoritarian regimes on the value of an open Internet and definitions of security make effective global treaties impossible. Second, the potential adopters of norms are likely to be more receptive if they do not think the proponent of the norms is acting in bad faith. To be sure, many states were happy to use the Snowden revelations as a cover for opposition to any rules of behavior Washington might offer. But for others, efforts at persuasion have been damaged by the exposed gap between U.S. rhetoric and actions. At the very least, other states must be persuaded that following a norm is in their national interest. The disclosures, however, reinforced the view of many states that the United States disproportionately benefits from an open, global, and secure Internet, and is only committed to these values to the extent that they further U.S. economic, political, and military objectives. In light of the Snowden disclosures, the United States is poorly placed to persuade other actors of its good faith or its commitment to shared interests and values. The extent of the damage to the U.S. reputation was revealed when the United States accused North Korea of hacking into Sony's servers and announced its intention to retaliate against North Korea through low-level sanctions. Building on previous indictments of Chinese soldiers for hacking into U.S. firms, U.S. officials followed an approach of "naming and shaming" cyberattackers while pursuing sanctions and possible criminal charges. These actions are highly unlikely to result in successful prosecutions, but potentially serve a normative purpose by signaling to the world that some actions are unacceptable. Although a few states criticized North Korea, many did not buy U.S. claims that Pyongyang was responsible. Members of the business and technology communities also expressed polite skepticism over the evidence supplied by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Third, states are not the only important actors shaping norms on cyberspace. Sometimes they are not even the most significant players. Large e-commerce firms (which are tacitly reshaping norms around privacy and security by rebuilding the everyday architecture of cyberspace), and activists and experts (who both design and implement Internet protocols) play important and visible roles in shaping arguments about cyberspace policy. The U.S. government had been able to work in tacit—albeit sometimes uneasy—alliance with businesses, which favored minimum government interference across the globe, and with activists, who wanted to limit government surveillance and trusted the United States a little more than they trusted other countries. The Snowden disclosures shattered these unspoken alliances by revealing that the United States was secretly authorizing massive surveillance and undermining core cryptographic standards at the same time that it was advocating for a free and open Internet. Recommendations If the United States is serious about promoting a normative approach to interactions in cyberspace, it will have to undertake some difficult reforms. First, the NSA, the Central Intelligence Agency, and Cyber Command should adopt a fundamental change of mind-set, abandoning what legal scholar Margo Schlanger calls "intelligence legalism." Most U.S. intelligence officials pride themselves on obeying the law, but their understanding of the law sometimes depends on strained and secret interpretations that push the envelope of what is possible. As argued in President Barack Obama's Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technologies, the review process for signal collection must be more clearly weighed against the potential damage to the normative commitments to an open and secure Internet held by the United States, its allies, and those whom the United States wishes to persuade. If the NSA wants to help develop strong norms, it will have to limit its own freedom to carry out operations that contravene the norms that the United States seeks to establish. Second, if the U.S. government wishes to use naming and shaming tactics to develop norms, it will need evidence to support its claims. Shaming tactics face their own version of the attribution problem and the Snowden affair makes the U.S. government less inclined to share sensitive information, while some parts of the technical community are more likely to question the veracity of the information and less willing to cooperate. One possible way forward might be to develop an informal panel of independent technical experts from the global community of Computer Emergency Response Teams. The panel could convene on an ad hoc basis to review the evidence provided by a victim state, and the accused state could provide information to refute the victim's claim. Although it will be difficult to review highly sensitive information using such a loose arrangement, it should be possible to share some forensic data with these experts, allowing them to evaluate the veracity of claims. In some instances, governments may have to be willing to lose highly valued intelligence operations if they want their shaming tactics to be effective. Third, to develop legitimate norms, the United States should let some of its partners take the lead. New norms will not be seen as legitimate if they are perceived to be solely a projection of U.S. interests. The Netherlands, for instance, has been active in promoting free expression on the Internet, and is hosting a Global Conference on Cyberspace in April 2015. A number of private groups and companies—the Global Network Initiative, Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), the Center for Democracy and Technology, and Microsoft—are working on norms of state behavior. The United States can exercise influence over norms, helping to convene initial groups, and perhaps imprinting the early process of debate with some of its core values. However, norms will only develop full legitimacy if they are associated with independent structures that evaluate them, debate them, and assess whether different actors are living up to them. For the same reason, the United States should participate in systematic conversations with countries, businesses, and leading experts in the hope of generating some shared values that might lead to stronger normative commitments. This already happens through track-two diplomacy with China and other world powers. Paradoxically, it may be harder for the United States to start talking to the technology companies and groups like the EFF who share a common normative vocabulary of commitment to openness and free debate. The bitterness of the last two years will be difficult to overcome. Implementing these three recommendations will require the U.S. government to change critical aspects of its approach to cybersecurity, balancing offensive and defensive strategies against the capacity to persuade. The U.S. government should identify ways to work with actors with whom it lacks mutual trust, in order to build legitimacy for its claims about appropriate actions in cyberspace. Finally, the government should support these much-needed conversations about norm building, while letting business and civil society actors take the lead. If the United States can carry through on these steps, it will be in a much better place to promote norms and, in the process, restore its own credibility.
  • United States
    The Weirdness of Ross Douthat’s Pax Americana
    Way back when before the 2008 presidential elections, some Democratic Party foreign policy operatives put together a series of seminars near Jacksonville, Florida at a place called White Oak Plantation. From what I understand, the idea was to bring some folks together to work through the difficult and complex issues facing the United States in the post–George W. Bush world. A few friends who work on Asia, Europe, and international economic issues took part in what sounded like a series of interesting weekends. To my knowledge, the people behind the White Oak meetings never organized a discussion on the Middle East because—according to a buddy of mine who attended one of the sessions—they did not feel the need to; they said they could just read about the region in the papers. I remember feeling the professional slight on behalf of all my Middle East expert colleagues everywhere and a little surprised. Although there were exceptions, the Bush team as a group did not distinguish themselves with a firm grasp of the history, politics, and culture of the region. Surely, I thought, the people preparing and hoping to lead the country for the next eight years—at least—would want to avoid making similar mistakes. Then again, there is the widely held perception that for all that Middle East analysts know about the region, policy recommendations are not their strong suit. So why not rely on what foreign correspondents and columnists have to say? Their record cannot be any worse, right? All of this came to mind on Sunday morning when I cast my gaze upon Ross Douthat’s Sunday column in the New York Times, “The Method to Obama’s Middle East Mess.” It is worse. A lot worse. Let me start by stipulating that the Middle East is, indeed, a mess. Actually, I am not sure “mess” quite captures the maelstrom of violence, hate, cynicism, and hypocrisy that prevails in the region, but it is serviceable enough for the title of a column. Let’s also acknowledge that the ad hoc quality of the Obama administration’s approach to the interrelated problems of the region has hardly helped. I could go on, but there is enough criticism of the White House on the Middle East from virtually every quarter that there is no reason to pile on. Some of these critiques are smart, others less so. Unfortunately for Douthat, his commentary falls into the latter category. It is, as I tweeted after reading it twice, full of “weirdness.” Douthat builds his argument on a distinction between a “Pax Americana system” that he clearly favors, which implies a robust American presence in the region and the use or threat of military force to influence events, versus the “offshore balancing system” that the Obama administration allegedly prefers. This would entail a significantly lighter American footprint in which Washington would influence the region and ensure a favorable political order from the outside, only intervening against terrorists and nuclear proliferators. Let me reiterate that I do not believe the White House wants the United States to be an offshore balancer; it is more likely they do not know what they want. They seem to be merely trying to keep up with events. That said, given Washington’s tragic encounter with the Middle East over the last decade and a bit, Douthat’s idea of a Pax Americana is, well, odd. I don’t know Douthat and I don’t know where he has been, but he seems to forget that even during the era of undisputed American dominance of the Middle East—from March 1991 until March 2003—it was often difficult for Washington to drive events in the region. The United States failed to make peace between Palestinians and Israelis, failed to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear technology or Syria from supporting terrorist organizations, and failed to transform Hosni Mubarak into a democrat. The fantasy of Douthat’s Pax Americana is the idea that people in the Middle East do not have the ability to calculate their own interests and pursue their own politics even in the face of Washington’s “overwhelming military might.” His imaginary Middle East is even stranger given the invasion of Iraq, which sapped American power, destroyed a major Middle Eastern state, and handed the country over to Washington’s archenemy in the region, Tehran. Debates about whether he could have gotten a Status of Forces Agreement aside, Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq was likely too hasty, but the truth of the matter is Iraq was broken (irreparably) and American influence in the region was on the wane when President Obama was still State Senator Obama. It gets even stranger when Douthat places Iraq in his discussion of Pax Americana. Here are the passages that really shook the crud out of my eyes: Since the Cold War, and especially since 1991, the Pax Americana idea has predominated in our foreign policy thinking. But in the Middle East, there has been no real evolution toward democracy among our network of allies; instead, their persistent corruption has fed terrorism and contributed to Al Qaeda’s rise. Hence the Bush administration’s post-9/11 decision to try to start afresh, by transforming a rogue state into a regional model, a foundation for a new American-led order that would be less morally compromised than the old. Hmmm. Well. Ummm. Where to start with these paragraphs? I was not aware that Pax Americana hinged on the “evolution of democracy” in Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and elsewhere in the Arab world. One could make an argument that American influence with the leaders of these countries was more consequential before the Bush administration launched its “forward strategy of freedom” in the Middle East. Also, I was not aware that Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri were good governance types who sent terrorists to attack the United States on September 11, 2001, because Hosni Mubarak and the House of Saud were/are corrupt. Then there is the way that Douthat characterizes the invasion of Iraq as a way of “start[ing] fresh” to align American foreign policy with American morals. That’s why the United States went to war in 2003? To start fresh? Because corruption causes terrorism? To get right with our morals? In all of the twisted logic I have heard about Operation Iraqi Freedom, this the most convoluted. I hope Douthat wasn’t invited to the meetings at White Oak Plantation. Let’s be clear: The way in which the invasion was ginned up, executed, and botched, along with the 4,425 dead Americans, the 31,949 injured Americans, and an untold number of Iraqi casualties, did more to compromise Washington’s claims to the moral high ground than throwing America’s chips in with Hosni Mubarak and other regional strongmen no matter how distasteful. Maybe I am being too harsh. Douthat acknowledges the problems with Operation Iraqi Freedom, though he uses them to tag the Obama administration (again) for its alleged desire to be an offshore balancer, which he says will not work because Washington is too entangled in the region. His answer then is what else? Leadership. The United States cannot leave its “allies in the lurch.” Douthat does not say it, but he infers his preferred course of action: In order to preserve Pax Americana, the United States should bomb Iran, bring down the Assad regime in Syria, and, I guess, fight the Houthis in Yemen as well. I’ll admit that Douthat’s implied prescription does have the benefit of clarity. At least we would know exactly how the United States got further entangled in the Middle East, resulting in yet more military commitments in the region, further undermining American strength and influence, and in the process putting America’s global interests at stake. That’s some Pax Americana. So much for getting our Middle East wisdom from the papers.
  • International Organizations
    Present at the Creation, Beijing-Style
    The decision by America’s four most important European allies to become founding members of the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is no mere diplomatic setback for Washington. It is a body blow to the U.S.-led international order created in the wake of World War II, which is crumbling before our eyes. The world rising to replace it will be a messy system of competing multilateral institutions in which the United States and China vie for supremacy. When the global distribution of power shifts dramatically, the leadership of international cooperation, and institutional structures, naturally follow. The only question is the length of the time lag. Since 2000, the world has experienced the fastest reallocation of economic might in history. At the head of the queue are the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—which now collectively account for 20 percent of global economic output, up from 8 percent fifteen years ago. China itself, which accounted for only 11 percent of U.S. gross domestic product at the dawn of the millennium, has now overtaken the United States in terms of purchasing power parity. But the power shift goes well beyond the BRICS. Goldman Sachs has identified a group of “next eleven” countries, including South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, and Indonesia that it predicts will eventually rival the G7 in terms of international influence. The U.S. response to this transformation, as one might expect, has been conflicted. Rhetorically, President Obama came into office pledging to update the creaking architecture of international cooperation, which was “buckling” in the face of global power shifts. His first National Security Strategy promised rising powers an increased voice within international institutions, provided that they assumed responsibility for global burdens. Early on, the Obama administration declared itself open to UN Security Council reform, as well as adjustment of “chairs and shares” (or governance and voting weight) within the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. But the Obama administration eventually backtracked. After President Obama endorsed eventual Security Council membership for Japan and India in 2010, the administration shelved plans for reform after a lengthy interagency review. In part, the stalled plans for reform reflected skepticism about the potential behavior of the emerging candidates for permanent membership—fellow democracies India, Brazil, and South Africa—as well as doubts that the United States could engineer such a feat. The Obama administration dropped public support for Security Council reform. But by choosing the status quo, the United States tied itself to an institution whose credibility and legitimacy were destined for long-term decline. The administration took a more constructive stance toward IMF reform, but thanks to congressional obstructionism, these efforts came to naught. In 2010, U.S. officials engineered a historic agreement to adjust the membership and voting weight of the IMF’s executive board, at the expense of European nations. In pushing through this deal, the Obama administration was less fixated on immediate gains than enlightened self-interest: namely, the desire to lock in the support of emerging powers—and particularly China—for the financial and monetary order whose foundations were laid down at the Bretton Woods conference of 1944. Congress repeatedly rejected legislation approving the envisioned governance shifts, and the Obama administration spent its political capital on other crises. GOP legislators and particularly Tea Party supporters, attacked the legislation as an affront to U.S. sovereignty and freedom of action. The consequences of this short-sightedness are potentially catastrophic. Beyond undermining the “credibility” of the Fund, in the words of IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, congressional obstructionism has reinforced the perception of emerging economies that the West will resist diluting its prerogatives tooth and nail. Predictably, rising powers have given up on the Bretton Woods institutions—and created new forums to pursue their national ends. The AIIB is just the latest incarnation. Last year, the BRICS nations also launched a contingency fund and a development bank of their own, intended to compete with the IMF and World Bank, respectively. The result is an increasingly crowded landscape of competing international institutions. For too long, the United States has reassured itself that it is best positioned to play the game of competitive multilateralism, picking and choosing among flexible frameworks as the situation demands. Thus, after becoming disillusioned with the Group of Twenty (G20), the Obama administration has revived its interest in the G7 grouping of advanced market democracies, in essence resurrecting the old inner sanctum of the global economy, which had been jettisoned after the global financial crisis necessitated cooperation with China. Resurrecting that lost world, however, is a losing battle. China’s successful AIIB gambit shows that the United States has no monopoly on playing this game, and that the center of gravity for international cooperation is shifting from the West to Asia. It also reveals, in one fell swoop, that the Western solidarity that has underpinned the multilateral system since 1945 is fraying. This week’s shocking developments provide a useful, if painful, wake-up call to Washington. If the United States is unwilling and unable to revitalize the institutions it founded to accommodate new players, other countries will build new ones in their place.
  • China
    A Bank Too Far?
    The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank seeks to address a critical infrastructure gap in the region, but it is also a challenge to the existing global economic order, says CFR’s Robert Kahn.
  • Global
    Charting a Future for the United Nations
    Play
    Bathsheba Crocker discusses the complex global challenges facing the United Nations, U.S. policies regarding the UN, and the arguments for investment in international organizations.
  • Regional Organizations
    Economic Coalition of the Willing: The OECD and Emerging Powers
    In an article just published by Foreign Affairs, Naomi Egel and I argue that the OECD’s approach to engaging emerging powers as “key partners” is a smart way to remain relevant as the global balance of power shifts. Other multilateral organizations should learn from its example. For the past decade, a quiet experiment has been underway at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Paris-based body composed of the United States and other advanced market democracies. Although it is often dismissed as sleepy and technocratic, the OECD has found a way to remain relevant in a quickly shifting global landscape, and other multilateral organizations would be wise to pay attention. The OECD, like numerous other international bodies, must adapt to changing geopolitical dynamics that have left new major global players outside its ranks. Its response is a so-called “key partner” initiative that allows it to engage—and seek to influence—pivotal nonmember states. This method strikes the right balance between maintaining the OECD’s symbolic role as the enforcer of Western norms and meeting its practical need to maintain a foothold on the global stage. Read the full article here.
  • Trade
    Deglobalization Remains a Powerful Trend
    During a seemingly successful trip to Asia last November, U.S. President Barack Obama announced several breakthroughs. Among them was a promise that the United States and Asian nations would proceed toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade deal. Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping also announced a new climate deal, the first between the two powers, which will commit both the United States and China to significant emissions cuts over the next two decades. The TPP would seem to be just one of many indicators of our growing interconnectedness with Asia, and indeed of the interconnectedness of the entire world. Today, riots in Missouri are immediately broadcast on Al Jazeera in the Middle East; Facebook boasts hundreds of millions of users in India; and a plane crash in Indonesia is tweeted about around the world within minutes. But many deeper trends point in a different direction. Since the late 2000s, despite the superficial connectivity of Facebook and Twitter, the world has entered a period of what you might call deglobalization. Global trade growth has slowed dramatically from its normal pace. Banks’ investments and lending outside their borders has plummeted, and investors have pulled out of stock markets across the developing world. Cross-border migration is down. A comprehensive index of globalization produced by the Zurich-based research organization KOF Swiss Economic Institute, which includes such variables as investment dollars, tourism figures, and information flows over the Internet, finds that “globalization has stalled since the outbreak of the [international] financial crisis in 2008.” You can see more of my analysis on the continued power of deglobalization in the Boston Globe.
  • China
    China, Japan, and the Twenty-One Demands
    Compared with the high-profile national Memorial Day for the Nanjing Massacre last month, the date January 18 passed uneventfully. Chinese media appeared to have forgotten that one hundred years ago, on exactly that day, Japan presented Chinese President Yuan Shikai (Yuan Shih-Kai) with requests that would have turned China into a de facto Japanese protectorate. The Japanese requests included five groups of secret demands that became known as the Twenty-One Demands. Groups One and Two were designed to confirm Japan’s dominant position in Shandong, southern Manchuria, and eastern Inner Mongolia. Group Three would acknowledge Japan’s special interests in an industrial complex in central China. Group Four forbade China from giving any further coastal or island concessions to foreign powers except for Japan. The most outrageous was Group Five. Group Five required China to install Japanese advisors who could take effective control of Chinese government, economy, and military. These demands would have had a similar impact to that of what the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty had on Korea in 1910. These notorious demands were issued at a time of shifting balance of power in East Asia. With the Qing dynasty’s humiliating defeat in the first Sino-Japanese War (1894-95), regional dominance for the first time had moved from China to Japan. Japan’s ambitions in China were further emboldened by its decisive victory in the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05), which affirmed the Japanese presence in south Manchuria and Korea. The 1911 Revolution brought an end to the Qing dynasty and ushered in the Republican era in China, but China remained a pushover in the face of pressure from Western powers. Furthermore, Yuan’s ruling status itself was shaky due to threats from competing local warlords. World War I granted Japan a perfect opportunity to push the envelope even more with China. As the war was underway in Europe, the Japanese hoped that other major powers would show little interest in countering Japanese expansion in China. For these reasons, Japanese Foreign Minister Kato Takaaki was convinced that the filing of an ultimatum buttressed by the war threat would cause China to accept all the demands. Fully aware of the negative reaction the demands would cause, Japan asked China to keep them confidential and threatened to take “drastic actions” if they were leaked. Contrary to the popular Chinese image of Yuan being a traitor, archived history suggests that Yuan and his top associates worked hard to minimize the harms caused to China’s sovereignty by the Twenty-One Demands. Soon after studying the Japanese request, Yuan instructed top Chinese diplomats that by no means should China submit to the demands of Group Five. Headed by then Foreign Minister Lou Tseng-Tsiang, the Chinese negotiators sought to stall the negotiation process for as long as possible. Between February 2 and April 17, twenty-five rounds of negotiations were held. Disregarding the Japanese threat, Yuan had his political advisor leak the full contents of the Twenty-One Demands to a correspondent for the Times in Beijing, who then reported them on February 12. In seeking international support, Yuan also relied on the traditional Chinese strategy of playing one power against another (yi yi zhi yi). He hoped that a perceived threat to European and U.S. political and economic interests in China would lead them to constrain Japan’s aggressiveness. Although the United States continued with a low-risk strategy in China, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan warned that the United States would not recognize infringements on Chinese sovereignty and the Open Door policy. As author Bertram Lenox Putnam Weale documented in the book An Indiscreet Chronicle from the Pacific, the possible intervention of Great Britain and the United States was indeed a concern for Japan in deliberating what final steps to take on May 6. In addition, Yuan also sought to affect Japanese domestic politics by mobilizing the support of Genro, who were angered by the government’s failure to consult them before drawing up the demands. As the negotiations evolved into an inevitable crisis at the end of April, the open opposition of elder statesmen like Matsukata played a decisive role in forcing the Japanese government to drop the demands of Group Five in the ultimatum delivered to China on May 7. Not surprisingly, Yuan, who had no intention of risking war with Japan, accepted the ultimatum on May 9. The final form of the treaty was signed on May 25, 1915. With the removal of the most odious provision, however, the new treaty gave Japan no more than what it already had in China. Yuan, whose credibility and popularity as a leader was further weakened as a result of his appeasement policy, viewed accepting the treaty as a “terrible shame” (qichi daru) and made May 9 China’s National Humiliation Day. The Twenty-One Demands nurtured a considerable amount of public ill-will towards Japan, and the upsurge in nationalism is still deeply felt today in China’s handling of Sino-Japanese relations. To be sure, times have changed. This time, the pendulum of power is swinging in China’s favor. Given the ongoing territorial disputes in East Asia, the episode that occurred exactly one century ago can still provide critical insights into how a rising regional hegemon like China should behave, and how less powerful states could play the power game to better protect their national interests.
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