from Center for Preventive Action

Political Instability in Egypt

Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 4

August 01, 2009

Contingency Planning Memorandum
Contingency Planning Memoranda identify plausible scenarios that could have serious consequences for U.S. interests and propose measures to both prevent and mitigate them.

More on:

Egypt

Political Transitions

Conflict Prevention

Overview

Egypt is now entering a period of political transition with the expectation that President Hosni Mubarak's almost twenty-eight-year tenure will shortly come to an end. The transition will further weaken the capacity of the Egyptian government to manage economic, social, and foreign policy challenges, thus sharpening the potential for political instability. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Steven A. Cook assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take depending on what it determines as its broader policy objectives in Egypt.

More on:

Egypt

Political Transitions

Conflict Prevention

Explore More on CFR

Venezuela

In addition to a sharp economic downturn, Venezuela faces a humanitarian crisis. The United States can do little to prevent a downward spiral, but it should take measures to mitigate the political, economic, and humanitarian consequences of a potential mass emigration.

North Korea

The U.S. military is prepared for a number of contingencies with regard to North Korea, but the best path forward is diplomacy aimed at denuclearization.

Italy

Italy’s elections will shape the country’s response to economic stagnation, migration woes, and European integration, with repercussions across the continent.