Taiwan’s presidential election may increase U.S.-China tensions.

China’s initial response to William Lai’s victory in Taiwan’s presidential election was relatively restrained but it will likely exert more pressure on Taiwan in the coming months. 

Ko Wen-je claims that he can chart a third way, simultaneously boosting Taiwan’s defenses while restarting communication with China. It is unclear, however, whether China would accept his overtures.

Taiwan’s fate will have major implications for U.S. security and prosperity. It will also bear on fundamental questions of international order and the future of democracy.

U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.

Hou Yu-ih has vowed to invest in Taiwan’s defenses while pursing dialogue with China. It is unclear whether Beijing would condition the latter on Hou not pursuing the former.

William Lai’s priorities are bolstering Taiwan’s defenses and consolidating ties with democracies. China is unlikely to pursue dialogue with Lai and would instead increase pressure on Taiwan.

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