Abi McGowan

CFR Staff

Abi McGowan

Global Conflict Analyst

Abi McGowan is the global conflict analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She was previously a research associate for Southeast Asia and U.S. foreign policy. Before joining CFR, she served as an AmeriCorps member and interned with the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs, the U.S. Department of State, and the House of Commons of Canada. She received her BA from the Ohio State University and an MA in Global Security and Borders from Queen's University Belfast, where she was a Hillary Rodham Clinton Scholar.

United States

A Guide to Trump’s Second-Term Military Strikes and Actions

Since returning to office, Trump has steadily expanded his use of military force abroad. Many of his actions mirror those of previous administrations, but diverge from the president’s past opposition to foreign military commitments.

by Abi McGowan, Molly Carlough and Natalie Caloca January 13, 2026
Wars and Conflict

Five Takeaways From CFR’s 2026 Conflict Risk Assessment

Every year, the Preventive Priorities Survey asks experts to rank thirty conflict scenarios in terms of likelihood and potential impact. This year’s results paint a picture of a more violent and dangerous world in 2026.

by Natalie Caloca, Molly Carlough and Abi McGowan December 18, 2025 Center for Preventive Action
Conflict Prevention

Behind Trump’s Peace Efforts: A Strategic Focus on Critical Minerals

President Trump has repeatedly claimed to have ended eight wars since he returned to office. Accessing critical minerals and resource extraction appear to be at the core of those diplomatic efforts.

by Abi McGowan and Mariel Ferragamo December 15, 2025
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: August 2025

China's engagement in the Indo-Pacific was dominated by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

by Abi McGowan and Annabel Richter September 30, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: July 2025

China’s role in the Indo-Pacific was defined by its military exports, strategic coercion, infrastructure buildup, and diplomatic maneuvering—shaping regional security outcomes and positioning itself as both a partner and a power broker amid intensifying great-power rivalry.

by Abi McGowan and Annabel Richter August 19, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: June 2025

In June 2025, China attempted a diplomatic thaw with India, but it was stymied by arms sales to Pakistan and disagreements over terrorism at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s leadership meeting. In Southeast Asia, China bolstered its security presence from Myanmar to the South China Sea while expanding diplomatic and economic engagement in minilateral forums across the region.

by Steven Honig and Abi McGowan July 21, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: May 2025

In May 2025, China deepened its strategic footprint by reasserting territorial claims along the China-India border, backing Pakistan militarily during its clash with India, advancing trilateral talks with Pakistan and the Taliban, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, and expanding ties with ASEAN and the Gulf.

by Steven Honig and Abi McGowan June 2, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: April 2025

China has intensified its engagement across the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing regional unity against U.S. protectionism, asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea, and expanding its influence via infrastructure projects, while also facing challenges and criticism over its development practices and strategic ambitions in the region.

by Abi McGowan and Aanika Veedon May 7, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
Canada

Canada’s 2025 Elections: Why the U.S. Is on the Ballot

Canadians are heading to the polls at the most fraught moment in U.S.-Canada relations in eighty years.

by Abi McGowan April 27, 2025
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: March 2025

China’s involvement across the Indo-Pacific in March 2025 ranged from warming ties with India and deepening cooperation with Bangladesh and Pakistan to increased presence in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

by Abi McGowan and Aanika Veedon April 9, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
Indonesia

Prabowo’s Rocky First Months as Indonesia’s President

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto entered office with bold promises and ambitions for global leadership, but his first months have been marked by domestic unrest, inconsistent foreign policy, and growing concerns over governance.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan March 26, 2025 Asia Unbound
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: February 2025

In February 2025, China expanded its influence in the Indo-Pacific through diplomatic outreach, infrastructure investment, and coordinated security efforts—hosting delegations, deepening economic ties with ASEAN and Middle Eastern states, conducting controversial military drills, and collaborating with Thailand and Myanmar to crack down on cross-border scam centers.

by Abi McGowan and Aanika Veedon February 28, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
Europe

Where Are U.S. Forces Deployed in Europe?

The start of U.S.-Russia talks on a possible agreement to end the war in Ukraine has spurred discussion about whether U.S. military forces in Europe will be reduced—a decision that would signal a significant shift in security on the continent.

by Molly Carlough, Benjamin Harris and Abi McGowan February 27, 2025
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: January 2025

This month, a spy scandal in the Philippines and Myanmar’s civil war highlighted China’s controversial involvement in the Indo-Pacific.

by Abi McGowan February 14, 2025 China Strategy Initiative
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: November 2024

China's November engagement in the Indo-Pacific included ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, uncertain investments in Cambodia, Myanmar’s civil war, relations with Indonesia, and regional security dynamics involving ASEAN and Japan.

by Abi McGowan November 30, 2024 China Strategy Initiative
Singapore

Singapore’s Ruling PAP Faces Its Most Competitive Election Ever

Despite the People’s Action Party’s historical dominance in Singaporean elections, recent trends and internal challenges suggest the opposition may achieve unprecedented gains in the upcoming national election.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan January 23, 2025 Asia Unbound
China Strategy Initiative

China in the Indo-Pacific: September 2024

China’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific this month included territorial disputes with neighboring countries and strengthened security coordination with others.

by Abi McGowan September 27, 2024 China Strategy Initiative
Philippines

Why Tensions in the South China Sea Are Bolstering the U.S.-Philippines Alliance

Manila has fully allied with Washington amid increasingly dangerous standoffs with Beijing in the South China Sea, heightening the prospect of a wider war.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan September 5, 2024 Asia Program
United Kingdom

UK Elections: What to Know

The United Kingdom appears poised for a political shift in response to deep economic concerns, but its foreign policy priorities are likely to remain consistent.

by Abi McGowan June 27, 2024
Myanmar

How Myanmar Became a Global Center for Cyber Scams

Organized crime groups in Southeast Asia have seized on Myanmar’s instability amid civil war to establish a string of scam centers engaged in global online fraud operations.

by Clara Fong and Abi McGowan May 31, 2024
Southeast Asia

The Specter of Transnational Repression

A recent report by Freedom House demonstrates the widespread normalization of transnational repression.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan December 27, 2023 Asia Unbound
China

Review of Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World

According to a new book by Axios reporter Bethany Allen, China has developed an authoritarian economic statecraft to reshape the global order.

by Abi McGowan November 14, 2023 Asia Unbound
China

Prized Panda Diplomats Return to Beijing

The National Zoo’s giant pandas will return to China by mid-November.

by Michelle Kurilla and Abi McGowan October 27, 2023 Asia Unbound
Territorial Disputes

Azerbaijan’s Pressure on Nagorno-Karabakh: What to Know

Azerbaijan appears to have eased a blockade that had cut off food and medical supplies to the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, but there are still heightened concerns about conditions facing more than one hundred thousand civilians there.

by Abi McGowan September 14, 2023
Vietnam

Assessing the Bolstered U.S.-Vietnam Relationship

President Biden's historic trip to Hanoi symbolizes growing shared interests between the United States and Vietnam.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan September 11, 2023 Asia Unbound
Thailand

Thailand's Summer of Political Uncertainty

Despite strong support for democratic change in Thailand's national elections, the ruling establishment has maneuvered to preserve power.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan August 31, 2023 Asia Unbound
Singapore

Is Singapore's Stability Unraveling—And What Will it Mean for the PAP?

A series of scandals have upset Singapore's typically stable politics.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan August 17, 2023 Asia Unbound
Cambodia

Cambodia's Unfree Election and Potential Succession Crisis

Cambodia's recent election exposes its looming succession crisis.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan July 26, 2023 Asia Unbound
Thailand

The Thai Establishment Plays with Fire

The ruling Thai establishment risks violence if it prevents the democratic opposition from taking power.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan July 19, 2023 Asia Unbound
Thailand

Thailand's Political Negotiations: The Current State of Play

The nomination of a compromise candidate for speaker of the House of Representatives demonstrates the pro-democracy coalition's pragmatism, but its chances of forming a new government are still uncertain.

by Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan July 5, 2023 Asia Unbound
Philippines

In the Philippines, Marcos Hasn’t Ended Duterte’s Brutal Drug War

with Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan via World Politics Review February 19, 2025
Philippines

Marcos’ All-In Bet on the United States Could Leave the Philippines Out in the Cold

with Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan via World Politics Review December 20, 2024
Immigration and Migration

Mediterranean Tragedy: The Deadly Path to Europe’s Shores

with Abi McGowan via Think Global Health December 1, 2023
Indonesia

Indonesia’s Prabowo Is Stumbling Out of the Gate

with Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan via World Politics Review March 26, 2025
Southeast Asia

The United States and China Aren’t Southeast Asia’s Only Options

with Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan via World Politics Review November 19, 2024
European Union

Why Rishi Sunak’s Northern Ireland Deal Will Fail

with Abi McGowan via Foreign Policy April 4, 2023
Singapore

Singapore’s Next Elections Could Remake Its Political Landscape

with Joshua Kurlantzick and Abi McGowan via World Politics Review January 23, 2025

Iran

The Islamic Republic’s Power Centers

Who calls the shots in Iran on economic policy, security, and domestic calls for reform? A look at the government’s organization chart indicates how complicated the answer is.

by CFR Editors January 9, 2026

Climate Change

Paris to Kyoto: The History of UN Climate Agreements

International efforts, such as the Paris Agreement, aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But experts say countries aren’t doing enough to limit dangerous global warming.

by Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong January 9, 2026 Renewing America

Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s Freedoms: What China Promised and How It’s Cracking Down

Beijing has tightened its grip on Hong Kong in recent years, dimming hopes that the financial center will ever become a full democracy.

by Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong December 15, 2025

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