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China

A global economy with such a large Chinese surplus can be sustained only with a large U.S. deficit—which was expanding even before the threat of tariffs. This has implications for the current U.S.-China trade war.

 

RealEcon

The United States’ relationship with China is at a new low, but Trump has a chance to redefine bilateral relations by locking China into the U.S.-led global system
Taiwan

Taiwan

President Lai Ching-te will soon host his first civil defense drill at a time of ramped up Chinese military maneuvers around Taiwan.

Taiwan

TSMC’s $100 billion will significantly boost America’s semiconductor manufacturing industry but how it will shape US-Taiwan relations is an open question.

China

Three questions framed Dr. Doshi’s remarks to the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security. First, what are Beijing’s ambitions? Second, how does it threaten homeland security in the cyber domain?  Third, how does it threaten homeland security through transnational crime?   The Chinese Communist Party is a nationalist political party dedicated to the goal of national rejuvenation after what it perceives as a “century of humiliation” at the hands of imperial powers. Related to that objective, the PRC has a grand strategy to displace U.S.-led order. It seeks to “catch up and surpass” the U.S. technologically; to make the world dependent on China’s supply chains economically; and to acquire the capability to defeat U.S. forces militarily. As the world’s leading industrial power with over 30% of global manufacturing and the first U.S. competitor to surpass 70% of U.S. GDP in a century, the PRC is a formidable rival. The PRC also seeks military bases worldwide, including in the Western Hemisphere. Beijing’s preferred global order would see it project leadership over international institutions, split, Western alliances, and advance autocratic norms. It would weaken the financial advantages that underwrite U.S. hegemony and seize the commanding heights of the “fourth industrial revolution” from artificial intelligence to quantum computing. China’s military would field a world-class force with global bases to defend China’s interests in most regions and even in new domains like space, the poles, and the deep sea. The prevalence of this vision in high-level speeches shows that China’s ambitions are not limited to Taiwan or the Indo-Pacific. PRC cyber actors have compromised sensitive U.S. networks with four key objectives. First, the PRC seeks access to American personal data for intelligence purposes, hacking major organizations like the Office of Personnel Management, Equifax, and Marriott, compromising hundreds of millions of records. Second, the PRC seeks access to American intellectual property, infiltrating companies and stealing an estimated $1 trillion worth of IP. Third, the PRC targets U.S. government systems, recently breaching tens of thousands of emails from the State and Treasury Departments, including the accounts of high-profile officials like U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns. Fourth, and most concerning, the PRC is using cyber tools to prepare the operational environment for potential wartime scenarios. The United States needs to shrink its attack surface while investing in offensive operations against the PRC to establish deterrence. First, Congress should prohibit software companies that sell to the U.S. government from operating in China as several of those firms have provided the PRC the source code of systems that the American government relies on. Second, Congress should prohibit cloud operators that support the U.S. government from operating in China. These companies almost certainly face conflicts given the PRC’s regulatory environment. The PRC has introduced a National Intelligence Law, Counterespionage Law, Encryption Law, Data Security Law, and updates to its definition of state secrets in recent years. This regime gives the PRC the ability to demand PRC entities and individuals comply with requests from the intelligence services, provide access to encryption keys, insert personnel on site, or outright seize equipment and data. The PRC seeks to gain leverage from these entanglements in the case of conflict with the United States. Particularly concerning is is the possibility that the PRC may be learning more about systems on which the U.S. relies while reducing its own reliance on U.S. systems. Third, to prohibit certain PRC goods that connect to networks, Congress should codify the Information Communication Technology and Services Supply Chain Executive Order and fund the office that administers it. Finally, the United States needs to go on the offensive. If the PRC has accesses on U.S. critical infrastructure, the United States reciprocally needs to maintain access on PRC critical infrastructure. In addition to cyber intrusions, China is directly complicit in the flow of Fentanyl to the United States. The PRC gives tax rebates and grants to Chinese chemical companies for manufacturing and exporting Fentanyl precursors. The PRC not only provides state-sponsored support to these companies; the Select Committee on the CCP found that the party holds direct ownership interest in at least four companies with connections to illicit drug sales. The PRC also allows these companies to advertise their goods openly on PRC websites. Moreover, PRC underground banks help cartels launder Fentanyl profits. The PRC has taken steps to address this issue, but these actions have been inadequate. Congress needs to strengthen U.S. sanctions authorities against entities involved in the Fentanyl trade, including PRC financial institutions. Relatedly, Congress can also link progress on Fentanyl to other PRC priorities, in consultation with the administration. To combat money laundering, Congress should pass the Corporate Transparency Act so law enforcement can track the beneficial owner of PRC shell companies and crack down on money laundering. Finally, Congress should pass the HALT Fentanyl Act to place Fentanyl-related substances as a class into schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act. The PRC poses many challenges to homeland security. The issues addressed in this testimony affect the lives of tens of millions of Americans. The China challenge is abstract, so it is important we link it to the lives of everyday Americans.
Trade

Trade

Trade retaliation looms from Canada, China, Mexico, and the European Union in response to U.S. tariffs. Four timelines lay out their responses, and the experience of American soybean farmers in 2018 shows how damaging this could be. 

Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. U.S. steel is a case in point.

 

Middle East

Yemen

The U.S. military continues to conduct large-scale strikes on Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen to counter their assault on global commerce and attempts to weaken Israel.

Yemen

Iranian support has boosted the military prowess of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, helping them project force into the Red Sea. Ramped up U.S.-led attacks on the group raise the prospect of military escalation with Iran.
Jacob Ware

 

Trade

Trade

There was once a broad consensus in Washington that trade was a force for good—a way to connect, grow, and prosper. But today, trade has evolved into something much bigger than just the exchange of goods. It’s become a powerful tool to rewrite the rules of foreign policy, reshape how the United States is viewed by the rest of the world, and steer us toward an increasingly uncertain future. When did this change begin, and where did we go off course?  

 

Trade

CFR experts provide insights and context around President Donald Trump's announced tariffs and what they mean for North American trade, U.S. alliances, and global competition.
CFR experts provide timely analysis on the trade-offs and costs associated with U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies.

Events

United States

Panelists discuss the Trump administration’s immigration policies, including increased deportations, the attempt to end birthright citizenship, and the suspension of refugee admissions, as well as the implications for U.S. national security and foreign policy.This meeting is part of CFR’s Transition 2025 series, which examines the major foreign policy issues confronting the Trump administration.The Silberstein Family Annual Lecture on Refugee and Migration Policy was established in 2019 through a generous gift from Alan M. Silberstein and the Silberstein family. The lecture provides CFR with an annual forum to explore emerging challenges in refugee and migration policy in the United States and around the world.For those attending virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question and answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register. Please note the audio, video, and transcript of this hybrid meeting will be posted on the CFR website.

United States

In April 2024, CFR launched RealEcon: Reimagining American Economic Leadership Initiative with the goal of rebuilding a durable consensus on the U.S. role in the international economy. As a first step, the RealEcon team toured the country to ask Americans their views on trade, investment, foreign aid, China, and other economic issues. They visited nine states and spoke with over 400 people, including local elected officials, business leaders, farmers, workers, students, and journalists. This event will feature a fireside chat with former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and a panel discussion with senior experts and interlocutors of key themes and policy takeaways from the tour. The Robert B. Menschel Economics Symposium was established in 2014 and was made possible through a generous endowment gift from Robert B. Menschel while a senior director at Goldman Sachs. Since Menschel’s death in 2022, the symposium continues in his honor and memory.

Defense and Security

In recent years, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have deepened their cooperation, raising concerns about an emerging “Axis of Autocracies” challenging U.S. global leadership. From military support and weapons transfers to economic backing, these alliances are reshaping the geopolitical landscape. This symposium will examine the extent of their collaboration, its global implications, and how the United States should respond to the threats it poses to U.S. national security. Click here to view the full agenda. This Hauser Symposium is made possible by the generous support of the Hauser Foundation. If you wish to attend virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question and answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register. Please note the audio, video, and transcript of this hybrid event will be posted on the CFR website.

United States

Anthropic Chief Executive Officer and Cofounder Dario Amodei discusses the future of U.S. AI leadership, the role of innovation in an era of strategic competition, and the outlook for frontier model development. The CEO Speaker series is a unique forum for leading global CEOs to share their insights on issues at the center of commerce and foreign policy, and to discuss the changing role of business globally. If you wish to attend virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question and answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register. Please note the audio, video, and transcript of this hybrid event will be posted on the CFR website.

Explainers

How Much Does the U.S. Pay to UN Agencies?
Many UN agencies, programs, and missions receive crucial funding from the United States. In his second administration, President Trump is again calling for greater scrutiny of U.S. funding and involvement in the global body.

Expert Spotlight

Will Freeman
Will Freeman

Fellow for Latin America Studies

Americas Latin America Democracy

Assessing President Sheinbaum's Security Policies

Henri J. Barkey
Henri J. Barkey

Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies

Middle East and North Africa Turkey Kurds

Will Erdogan Get Away with the Brazen Jailing of the Leader of Turkey’s Opposition?

Ray Takeyh
Ray Takeyh

Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies

Iran Iran Nuclear Agreement Persian Gulf

The Unloved Iranian Revolution

Featured Publications

International Law

Few Americans have done more than Jerome A. Cohen to advance the rule of law in East Asia. The founder of the study of Chinese law in the United States and a tireless advocate for human rights, Cohen has been a scholar, teacher, lawyer, and activist for more than sixty years. Moving among the United States, China, and Taiwan, he has encouraged legal reforms, promoted economic cooperation, mentored law students—including a future president of Taiwan—and brokered international crises. In this compelling, conversational memoir, Cohen recounts a dramatic life of striving for a better world from Washington, DC, to Beijing, offering vital first-hand insights from the study and practice of Sino-American relations. In the early 1960s, when Americans were not permitted to enter China, he met with émigrés in Hong Kong and interviewed them on Chinese criminal procedure. After economic reform under Deng Xiaoping, Cohen’s knowledge of Chinese law took on a new importance as foreign companies began to pursue business opportunities. Helping China develop and reconstruct its legal system, he made an influential case for the roles of Western law and lawyers. Cohen helped break political barriers in both China and Taiwan, and he was instrumental in securing the release of political prisoners in several countries. Sharing these experiences and many others, this book tells the full story of an unparalleled career bridging East and West.

Public Health Threats and Pandemics

A detailed exploration of the most sweeping government border closures in human history during the COVID-19 pandemic and the implications for the future of global mobility.

United States

Son of the Midwest, movie star, and mesmerizing politician—America’s fortieth president comes to three-dimensional life in this gripping and profoundly revisionist biography.