Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

United States

One of the biggest foreign policy surprises of 2025 might well be that, one year into this term, Trump has not only eschewed isolationism but established a new brand of American internationalism with Trumpian characteristics.

 

Trade

While the Treasury market is likely to remain stable next year, longer-term trade and fiscal trends—such as additional tariffs, questionable foreign demand, as well as rising deficits—risk pushing yields higher 
Conflict Prevention

Conflict Prevention

CFR’s assesses the likelihood of conflicts and how they could harm U.S. interests. Tensions in Venezuela and the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are among those of primary concern.

Wars and Conflict

Every year, the Preventive Priorities Survey asks experts to rank thirty conflict scenarios in terms of likelihood and potential impact. This year’s results paint a picture of a more violent and dangerous world in 2026.

Conflict Prevention

Every year, CFR’s Preventive Priorities Survey analyzes existing and potential conflicts throughout the world in terms of likelihood and possible impact. As the second Trump administration reorders U.S. foreign policy priorities, important questions remain about the country’s role in mitigating global conflict. Is the U.S. diplomatically prepared for the multitude of evolving conflicts worldwide and for new challenges on the horizon?
Global Governance

Southeast Asia

Autocrats have become more skilled in their intimidation and even harm of exiled dissidents and critics living abroad. Many countries where this repression is happening have weakened defenses against it or tolerated it because of economic ties to autocratic powers.

Southeast Asia

In 2025, the second administration of U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically changed the trajectory of U.S. engagement with Asia through its tariff-heavy approach, a trend that seems set to continue in the year ahead. 

Global Governance

The rise of middle powers in recent decades has offered a counterweight to the strain created by the United States, China, and Russia in international affairs. But although middle powers challenge great power leadership within multilateral institutions, they also create stability within those institutions and have a vested interested in maintaining it. 
Venezuela

Venezuela

The U.S. military has launched a campaign that it says targets illegal drug trafficking in the Caribbean, but experts say the operation’s broader agenda could include regime change in Venezuela.

Venezuela

The opposition and the Maduro regime will face a new variable at the negotiating table: the United States and its heavy military presence off Venezuela’s coast. As a direct party, the Trump administration now has an opportunity to learn the lessons of the past to bring a potential conflict to a close. 

 

Energy and Climate Policy

Climate Realism

If the United States waits too long to respond more fully and constructively, it could become an isolated island of gas-powered vehicles in an electric vehicle world driven by China.

Climate Realism

The primary U.S. response to China’s first-mover advantages in emerging auto technologies has been protection. A smarter strategy would seek to compete by supporting producers and collaborating with allies, while managing security risks.

Energy and Climate Policy

To meet growing energy demands while averting climate change, the world must accelerate innovation. European nations are the leading contributors to global energy innovation, with Canada the only non-European country in the index’s top ten. The United States ranks thirteenth.  
Terrorism

Terrorism

With the Islamic State now linked to the Bondi Beach terror attack, authorities need to redouble efforts to counter the group’s enduring appeal, especially during the yearend holiday period.

 

United States

The United States responded to the 9/11 terrorist attacks with military-focused campaigns that ended regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, but it failed to pursue long-term policies to counter radicalization.

Events

Economics

In its important new report, U.S. Economic Security: Winning the Race for Tomorrow’s Technologies, the CFR Task Force on Economic Security finds that strategic competition over the world’s next generation of foundational technologies is underway, and U.S. advantages in artificial intelligence, quantum, and biotechnology are increasingly contested. The high-level, bipartisan Task Force warns that economic security risks, especially overconcentration of critical supply chains in China and underinvestment in strategically important areas at home, threaten American leadership in these three crucial sectors of the future. The Task Force report provides a comprehensive view of vulnerabilities that the United States must address and offers practical recommendations for mobilizing the resources needed to prevail.  For those attending virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question-and-answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register.  This Task Force is part of RealEcon: Reimagining American Economic Leadership, a CFR initiative of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. Members may bring a guest to this event.

Sudan

Panelists discuss the status of the conflict in Sudan, including the deteriorating condition of civilians, the prospect for regional stability, and the options for an international response. This is a virtual meeting through Zoom. Log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question-and-answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register.

Religion

Sergei Chapnin, director of communications at Fordham University's Orthodox Christian Studies Center; Katherine Kelaidis, director of research and content at the National Hellenic Museum; and Andreja Bogdanovski, freelance journalist and analyst, will discuss the role of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) in global affairs. Timothy Snyder, senior fellow for democracy at CFR and Richard C. Levin professor of history at Yale University, will moderate the discussion. 

United States

David Miliband, president and chief executive officer of the International Rescue Committee (IRC), presents the new IRC Emergency Watchlist report, highlighting the countries at highest risk of humanitarian crises in 2026 and examining where the international community has made progress or fallen short. For those attending virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question-and-answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register.

Explainers

The Extent of Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis
More than two years into the civil war in Sudan, about twelve million people have been forcibly displaced. Yet experts say the country’s devastating humanitarian crisis is still not getting the international attention it deserves.

Expert Spotlight

Paul B. Stares
Paul B. Stares

General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action

Conflict Prevention Wars and Conflict Defense and Security

Featured Publications

Sub-Saharan Africa

An approachable guide to the political, social, and demographic changes happening in Africa and why they matter for the rest of the world.

United Nations

David J. Scheffer and Mark S. Ellis provide an introduction to the UN Charter and make the case that it is the most important secular document in the world.

International Law

Few Americans have done more than Jerome A. Cohen to advance the rule of law in East Asia. The founder of the study of Chinese law in the United States and a tireless advocate for human rights, Cohen has been a scholar, teacher, lawyer, and activist for more than sixty years. Moving among the United States, China, and Taiwan, he has encouraged legal reforms, promoted economic cooperation, mentored law students—including a future president of Taiwan—and brokered international crises. In this compelling, conversational memoir, Cohen recounts a dramatic life of striving for a better world from Washington, DC, to Beijing, offering vital first-hand insights from the study and practice of Sino-American relations. In the early 1960s, when Americans were not permitted to enter China, he met with émigrés in Hong Kong and interviewed them on Chinese criminal procedure. After economic reform under Deng Xiaoping, Cohen’s knowledge of Chinese law took on a new importance as foreign companies began to pursue business opportunities. Helping China develop and reconstruct its legal system, he made an influential case for the roles of Western law and lawyers. Cohen helped break political barriers in both China and Taiwan, and he was instrumental in securing the release of political prisoners in several countries. Sharing these experiences and many others, this book tells the full story of an unparalleled career bridging East and West.