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The Economic Fallout of the Iran War

Expert Briefing: The Geoeconomic Ripple Effects of the Iran War

Panelists discuss the ongoing geoeconomic consequences of the conflict in Iran, including global energy flows and oil prices, economic development and AI buildout in the Gulf region, sanctions on Russia, and inflation and interest rates as markets respond. The event is presided over by Edward Fishman, a CFR senior fellow and director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies.

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Around the World

CFR analyses and explainers that address global issues and challenges.

Taliban soldiers pose as they stand on a Humvee, following exchanges of fire between Pakistani and Afghan forces, in Momand Dara, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, February 28, 2026.
Taliban soldiers pose as they stand on a Humvee, following exchanges of fire between Pakistani and Afghan forces, in Momand Dara, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, February 28, 2026.

Tensions between nuclear-armed Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban regime have sharply escalated since late February, heightening regional instability and raising concerns about the risk of a prolonged conflict. Here’s what to know.

<p>Exhausted and covered in dust, a truck full of Sudanese refugees arrive on the outskirts of Oure Cassoni refugee camp in eastern Chad on November 30, 2025.</p>
<p>Exhausted and covered in dust, a truck full of Sudanese refugees arrive on the outskirts of Oure Cassoni refugee camp in eastern Chad on November 30, 2025.</p>

As Sudan’s civil war approaches its fourth year, the atrocities that have amassed are showing clear signs of genocide. The city of El Fasher illustrates the horror unfolding.

By David J. Scheffer

Aerial image of rubble in Gaza.
Aerial image of rubble in Gaza.

The Board of Peace has appointed a committee of Palestinian technocrats to oversee day-to-day administration of the enclave. Here’s what is known so far.

CFR Spotlights

Artificial Intelligence

President Trump ordered the U.S. government to stop using Anthropic’s cutting-edge AI model. It is the latest development in a standoff between the tech company and the Pentagon over how the new technology should be used.

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The War in Ukraine

Russia’s invasion has reshaped European security, strained Western alliances, and tested the limits of international resolve. But, as the conflict enters its fifth year, the terms of any eventual settlement appear to remain as contested as the front lines themselves.

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The Daily News Brief is CFR’s flagship morning newsletter. It brings the top global news of the day to your inbox—along with analysis by Council on Foreign Relations experts. 

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An Iranian woman holding a poster depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei walks under a large flag during the forty-seventh anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran on February 11, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency via Reuters
An Iranian woman holding a poster depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei walks under a large flag during the forty-seventh anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran on February 11, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency via Reuters

Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program, recommends that the United States reconsider its assumptions around eventual leadership change in Tehran, revive regime accountability efforts, prepare for opportunistic escalation by proxy groups, and ready itself for renewed nuclear diplomacy.

A woman holds a picture of a victim of forced disappearance during a 2025 ceremony in Colombia to honor loved ones who remain missing.
A woman holds a picture of a victim of forced disappearance during a 2025 ceremony in Colombia to honor loved ones who remain missing.

CFR International Affairs Fellow in National Security Roxanna Vigil argues that the United States should engage early with Colombia’s next administration to signal support for full implementation of the 2016 Peace Accords and provide targeted assistance.

Several U.S. naval vessels cruising on open water.
Several U.S. naval vessels cruising on open water.

CFR Senior Fellow Robert D. Blackwill outlines the conceptual pillars of five grand strategy schools and analyzes arguments for and against those strategies advanced by their proponents and critics. He then proposes an alternative American grand strategy: resolute global leadership.

<p>A Ukrainian artilleryman uses a portable rocket launcher in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region on May 23, 2025.</p>
<p>A Ukrainian artilleryman uses a portable rocket launcher in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region on May 23, 2025.</p>

The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. According to CFR’s annual conflict risk assessment, American foreign policy experts are acutely concerned about conflict-related threats to U.S. national security and international stability that are likely to emerge or intensify in 2026. In this report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts by their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests and, for the first time, identify opportunities for preventive action.

<p>Export-bound vehicles wait to be loaded onto roll-on/roll-off ships at Lianyungang Port in China, on December 1, 2025. </p>
<p>Export-bound vehicles wait to be loaded onto roll-on/roll-off ships at Lianyungang Port in China, on December 1, 2025. </p>

The primary U.S. response to China’s first-mover advantages in emerging auto technologies has been protection. A smarter strategy would seek to compete by supporting producers and collaborating with allies, while managing security risks.

<p>A Taiwan Coast Guard ship patrols near Dadan Island in October 2025. </p>
<p>A Taiwan Coast Guard ship patrols near Dadan Island in October 2025. </p>

Assumptions about how a potential conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan would unfold should urgently be revisited. Such a war, far from being insulated, would likely draw in additional powers, expand geographically, and escalate vertically.

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